In the context of the Russian conflict Ukraine into the fourth month, Ukrainian ports in Black Sea still under lockdown, raising fears of a global food crisis.
Ukraine is the fifth largest wheat exporter in the world. Earlier this month, World Food Program (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley warned that millions of people around the world could die if Ukraine’s seaports remain blocked.
The Black Sea is blocked, Ukraine cannot export grain
The Black Sea borders Ukraine to the north, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west.
Since launching a military operation in Ukraine at the end of February, Russia still dominates in the northern part of the Black Sea and has blockaded Ukraine’s seaports.
According to Reuters, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko in talks between Turkey, Ukraine and Russia on May 25 said that Moscow is ready to open a safe passage for ships transporting food – but only on condition that the West lifts sanctions against Russia.
As world leaders seek to break Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis has proposed the creation of a naval alliance to protect Ukrainian ships from Russian missiles. allowing Ukrainian grain to be transported across the Black Sea to the world.
“With this effort, ships or military aircraft or both protected the Ukrainian grain ship safely leaving Odessa and reaching the Bosphorus without being obstructed by Russian forces. We need an alliance, of countries with strong navies, to protect the shipping corridors at sea,” Landsbergis told the Guardian last week.
“This will be a non-military humanitarian mission and cannot be compared with a no-fly zone,” Landsbergis added.
Mr. Landsbergis’ proposal was warmly welcomed by Britain.
“What we need to do is address global food security. Britain is working on an urgent solution to get grain out of Ukraine,” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said.
Harry Nedelcu, Policy Director at Rasmussen Global, said the Lithuanian proposal is a possible option to break the blockade in the Black Sea.
“Russia has several dozen ships in the Black Sea, including submarines. Therefore, another option that can help break the blockade is for countries to provide Ukraine with more modern and sophisticated weapons that can sink Russian ships. Then the Black Sea will no longer be blocked and Ukraine can send grain ships through this area,” Nedelcu said.
Is NATO participating?
Due to Russia’s repeated criticism of NATO’s eastward expansion, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis emphasized that NATO would not participate in such a naval alliance in the Black Sea.
Ian Anthony, Director of the European Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), pointed out that there have been many occasions when NATO countries have carried out their own naval cooperation missions outside of NATO.
“There has been an international mission to protect commercial shipping from pirates in the Indian Ocean, in the Red Sea, in Southeast Asia. In addition, the EU already has a mission to protect ships from piracy in West Africa and in the Indian Ocean. So a naval mission in the Black Sea to protect Ukrainian ships could work the same way without NATO involvement,” Anthony told DW.
The important role of Turkey
According to the Lithuanian foreign minister, besides the UK, countries affected by Ukraine’s grain cannot be exported, such as Egypt, can play a certain role in sending ships to escort the ship.
In a report to SIPRI in early May, Mr. Anthony outlined how the United Nations can coordinate an international fleet with the participation of many countries, including China and India.
“In my opinion, ideally, the convoy would include ships from many countries. These ships will play the role of protecting ships carrying Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea,” Anthony said.
Although China and India have not criticized Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, Anthony said that if the international naval mission is a humanitarian mission to overcome food insecurity, There is no reason for Beijing and New Delhi to object.
Mr. Anthony also said that Turkey plays an indispensable role because it “guards” the entrance to the Black Sea.
“Turkey has a legal responsibility under the Montreux Convention for its conduct in wartime. Since Turkey has acknowledged there is a war in Ukraine, it has an obligation under the Montreux Convention to close the straits to military ships and that’s what they did,” Anthony said.
The Montreux Convention gives Turkey control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits and regulates maritime traffic in the Black Sea. However, Mr. Anthony also explained that, even during war, there are certain cases where Turkey cannot close these straits to warships.
According to Mr. Anthony, in the first case, Turkey is a party to the war. This is definitely not going to happen. The second case is when Turkey declares it is in danger. Turkey is one of the countries that depend on imported food, so the food security crisis has a certain impact in Turkey. That is what could spark domestic unrest.
“Turkey can state that: ‘We consider the current situation an existential danger to national security’. Under that condition, they could allow military ships to pass through the straits under the Montreux Convention. This plays an important role in efforts to break the blockade in the Black Sea,” Anthony said.
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