Gasoline car sales will drop forever from 2024, the world will save 2.5 million barrels of oil per day
According to Bloomberg NEF (BNEF), global electric vehicle sales could triple by 2025. The era of green cars is about to dominate, but governments and manufacturers need to make more efforts to phase it out. emissions gas.
At the recently held Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook conference, BNEF analysts considered electric vehicles (EVs) “a remarkable success story”, and predicted sales of these vehicles will increase. to 20.6 million units by 2025, much higher than the 14 million forecast a year earlier. The driving force is mainly driven by the booming demand for electric vehicles in the Chinese market.
However, the process of converting more than 1.2 billion vehicles globally takes a lot of time. Without new policies or regulations, only a quarter of them will be green by 2050. Heavy trucks are expected to be the hardest to convert.
“Despite the rapid increase in the production of EVs, road transport is not yet on track to be carbon neutral. More action is needed on the part of policymakers, especially for heavy vehicles,” said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport at BNEF.
Accordingly, global authorities need to set a timeline to completely phase out vehicles using internal combustion engines, by 2035 at the latest. Existing fuel economy and battery recycling standards also need to be tightened. tightly, in parallel with the process of building a smart charging station.
The 201-page report was highlighted during the conference, which mentioned many of the opportunities that electric vehicles currently have, their impact and the risks that are about to be faced. The government is said to be able to accelerate this challenging transition by reducing its reliance on cars. Specifically, if the number of kilometers traveled by passenger vehicles is reduced by 11% compared to BNEF’s 2050 scenario, the world will be able to save 2.25 giga tons of CO2 and reduce stress on the supply chain global battery.
According to BNEF, due to growing demand for electric vehicles, sales of vehicles using internal combustion engines will decline permanently starting in 2024, after peaking in 2017. Accordingly, 2 vehicles Three-wheelers, buses, passenger cars and some other vehicles will be able to save up to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day by 2025.
In the forecast scenario of the electric vehicle industry, BNEF finds that Germany, UK, France and China can completely phase out internal combustion engine vehicles by 2038. The US, Japan and Australia will catching up soon, while India and Southeast Asia appear to be lagging behind. This gap is alarming, especially for the necessary infrastructure and battery supplies.
“If those countries don’t have additional policies in place, the goal of net zero emissions will be out of reach. Air quality in urban areas is already markedly different between rich and emerging economies. This gap will continue to grow, unless the transition to electric vehicles improves,” the experts stated.
According to BNEF’s net-zero emissions scenario, the world will need up to $1.4 trillion to build a charging system by 2040. This is considered a major challenge in the effort to keep up with the growth momentum of EVs. globally, especially in the US.
“If raw material prices continue to rise, the above scenario will be delayed. Everyone hopes the gallop of electric vehicle batteries won’t disrupt the global target. Many factors are driving the price of this raw material, such as geopolitical conflicts and inflation. They are also pushing gasoline and diesel prices to record highs, which in turn spurs consumers to buy more electric vehicles,” the experts said.
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