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Nearly 10 years ago, how was the real estate market in Vietnam “out of the bottom”?

Real estate prices anchored at the peak, resonated with a series of market regulation policies such as tightening credit, tightening real estate transfer tax, etc., causing concern about the repetition of the real estate cycle. However, from an optimistic perspective, experts say that the current real estate market is different from the 2009-2010 scenario. Despite the same price spike, investors have become wiser. The Government’s regulatory policies are smooth and timely.

Real estate market bottomed 2011-2013

Looking back at the 2011-2013 period, the real estate market once recorded a “haunting” number about the bottoming period. According to statistics of the Ministry of Construction, during the bottom cycle of the real estate crisis, as of December 31, 2012, the number of business units with losses was 17,000, an increase of more than 2,000 compared to 2011. Total There are 2,637 enterprises that have ceased operation or been dissolved, including 2,110 construction enterprises and 527 real estate enterprises. Compared with 2011, the rate of construction enterprises shutting down and dissolving increased by 6.2%, real estate enterprises increased by 24.1%.

  Nearly 10 years ago, how did Vietnam's real estate market bottom out?  - Photo 1.

At the end of 2012, CBRE Vietnam once stated that the market completely belonged to buyers with a strong discount. Notably, people’s attention shifted from the secondary market to the primary market, causing the market to continue to record a new price drop.

Inventory is the most mentioned number in the reports. According to CBRE’s data, there are 20,500 apartments left in Hanoi alone, which are offered for sale by investors, but cannot find buyers.

Spectacular bottom escape

A series of solutions were introduced to bring the real estate market back to life in 2013. Specifically, a package of 30,000 billion to support low-income people to buy houses. Housing loan package of the State Bank began to be launched from June 1, 2013, valid for 3 years, with an interest rate set at 6%. Besides the loan package of VND 30,000 billion for low-income people to buy and rent houses, the Government has issued Decree 188 with regulations in favor of low-income people and investors. This move has pushed the real estate market up thanks to the positive transaction volume from this market.

Also in 2013, the Land Law (amended) was officially approved with additional amendments on acquisition, requisition, land use planning, land price bracket…

One of the reasons that helped the real estate market bottom out was a series of infrastructure projects that were strongly implemented in 2012, and 2013 such as the Vinh Tuy – Nga Tu So and Mai Dich – Nam Thang Long elevated road projects with a value of up to nearly 6,000 billion VND; My Dinh – Ba Sao – Bai Dinh route is 4,000 billion VND (Hanoi), Metro line 5 is worth nearly 900 million Euros (HCMC)…

By 2014, the real estate market had recorded signs of recovery. Preliminary statistics from the Ministry of Construction show that in 2014 the number of successful transactions doubled compared to last year. Specifically, in Hanoi is estimated at over 13,000 units, in Ho Chi Minh City about 9,000 units. Real estate inventories are on a sharp decline, about 17.6% compared to last year but the total value is still high at about 77.8 trillion. The number of remaining apartments in Ho Chi Minh City is over 6,000 units and in Hanoi there are about 2,000 apartments.

The office market has stabilized again with an increase in the number of real rental areas due to the expansion of businesses, the situation of the retail and hotel markets has prospered, especially transactions in the residential real estate segment. in high rise.

Also according to a report by the Ministry of Construction, real estate credit outstanding is at the highest level since 2011 until now, currently reaching over 290 trillion. In particular, real estate prices have stabilized, there is no decrease in prices like in previous years. In some hot projects in the center of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, there is a situation of price increases of up to 10%.

Positive signals from the bull trade signal the warming of the real estate market. Not only in the apartment segment, but also in the secondary market, if in the bottoming period, secondary investors sold below the original price, by 2014, they could have made a difference, although not as big as the time of land fever. The rate of price reduction of some segments may still be but has slowed down.

At the beginning of the bottom exit stage, buyers in the market are identified as mainly customers who have the need to buy to use. There are not many customers who are speculators. And starting from 2014, the real estate market has gradually recovered and entered a glorious flourishing period.

Assessing the real estate market in 2022, experts say that the high price of real estate, the decrease in purchasing power is the clearest signal that the market is slowing down. However, the scenario of falling into the “bottom” phase like 10 years ago is unlikely. In terms of signals that are the basis for the return of excitement, it is clear that optimism in the real estate scenario is completely feasible such as the amendment of the Land Law in the near future, the legal regulations regulating the real estate market. , social housing projects are launched…

https://cafef.vn/gan-10-nam-truoc-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-viet-nam-tung-thoat-day-ra-ao-20220601061917038.chn


According to Viet Khoa

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