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After 100 days, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain

After 100 days, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain - Photo 1.

100 days of conflict between Russia and Ukraine – Source: Al Jazeera, Institute for War Studies – Data: BAO ANH – Graphics: T.DAT

In fact, after the West launched economic – financial – technological sanctions packages, they were implemented simultaneously to maximize pressure but still did not force Russia to give up the “special military campaign”.

“1 pentagon, 2 belts”

From the very first days of the Ukraine war, all the members of the BRICS bloc affirmed the stance of “no sanctions against Russia” as well as attributing all provoking factors to hostilities. towards NATO.

In particular, not only China and India abstained in all resolutions against Russia at the United Nations, but also Brazil and South Africa also opposed economic sanctions against Russia.

Combined with activities to strengthen energy (China, India), fertilizer (Brazil) and food (South Africa) contracts with Russia despite pressure to maintain sanctions against this country from the US and other countries. Western countries, along with the projects to integrate the BRICS intra-regional trade payment system in the local currency being promoted by Russia, it can be seen that the BRICS is firmly holding the swan pentagon at the center of the order. post-war Ukraine world.

Outer support from the Russian-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) also helps strengthen the pentagon’s swan stance.

Beyond the swan framework of the BRICS bloc, small countries that are not influenced by much of the US and NATO also soon developed a flexible neutral position: still condemning Russia but only maintaining sanctions packages. symbolic – less likely to cause damage for the Russian side.

This trend appears in all three important regional organizations, namely ASEAN, the African Union (AU) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In which most ASEAN members avoid maintaining any sanctions against Russia (except Singapore), most AU members abstained in resolutions unfavorable to Russia at the United Nations General Assembly. China and OPEC always maintain close cooperation with Russia and coordinate international oil prices.

This is the first “neutral belt” that the Russian side has kept in their position.

The second “neutral belt” is a collection of allied countries of the United States (both inside and outside NATO) as well as the European Union affected by its heavy dependence on strategic exports. of Russia.

Representing these countries can include all three major powers in Europe, namely Britain (depending on Russian platinum for aircraft manufacturing), France (depending on uranium fuel from Russia) and Germany (depending on Russia). Russian gas).

After 100 days, the war between Russia and Ukraine is still uncertain - Photo 2.

A destroyed building in the town of Borodianka, near the capital Kiev – Photo: AFP


The fact that the protracted Ukrainian war is still opening up new scenarios with multi-dimensional consequences. In which the first scenario, but also the least feasible, is the West pouring weapons to increase the possibility of ending the war in Ukraine quickly with the participation of many countries in contributing to economic and infrastructure restoration.

The second scenario that can be predicted is the increase of NATO’s military presence on the “military belt” in the Nordic and Eastern European regions.

However, with guarantees that will not allow the establishment of permanent military bases or offensive weapons on their territories, Finland and Sweden in fact still play the necessary “buffer zone” role skillfully. skillfully to avoid unnecessary escalation of conflict scenarios while maintaining an assertive stance with domestic public opinion.

The third scenario is the emergence of Asia and Africa as important alternative destinations for Europe in the alternative energy strategy. In which Asia is becoming the leader in the development of hydrogen energy supply in the near future, while Africa is the nearest locomotive that can partially fill the energy supply for Europe at present. besides the traditional supply but many uncertainties from OPEC.

Victory will be ours.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on June 3, saying that the armed forces and the people had defended the country for 100 days.

This work will continue until all objectives of the military operation are accomplished.

Kremlin spokesman DMITRY PESKOV said on June 3

How is the world affected?

● Refugee

According to the United Nations, more than 14 million Ukrainians have been forced from their homes to date because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Of these, more than 6.5 million have crossed the border and are living as refugees abroad, and more than 8 million are internally displaced.

● Food Crisis

Ukraine is an important wheat exporter, producing about half of the world’s sunflower oil, accounting for about 15 percent of global trade in corn and 10 percent in wheat. The conflict has stalled the country’s exports.

As of the end of May 2022, about 23 countries have restricted food exports, a sign that food security is weakening.

●Energy Security

Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest supplier of crude oil and the third largest exporter of coal in the world. The European Union’s attempt to end dependence on Russian energy threatens global energy security.

● Prices and inflation rise

When food and fuel prices go up, everything else goes up too. The United Nations says world food prices rose 13% in March, reaching an all-time high. Meanwhile, according to the World Labor Organization, inflation has more than doubled worldwide from March 2021.

NATO expansion

Finland and Sweden have announced their accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), ending the policy of neutrality that the two countries have maintained for 70 years.

HEROINE synthetic

MSc Luc Minh Tuan (international research group at HUFLIT University)

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