What will real estate prices be like in the remaining months of 2022?
Over the years, the State Bank (SBV) has gradually directed credit capital flows into the fields of manufacturing, services, agriculture, … and reduced the lending rate for the real estate sector.
Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN, effective from 2020, requires commercial banks to reduce the maximum ratio of short-term capital used for medium and long-term loans to 34% from October 2021 and 30% from October 2022.
As a result, credit growth in the real estate sector has slowed from 26% in 2018 to 12% in 2021 and may decline to 9-10% in 2022.
In April this year, in order to limit real estate speculation, the SBV asked banks to closely monitor credit in the real estate sector and limit credit for high-end real estate investment, real estate and real estate. tourism, resort and real estate speculation.
In addition, the Government also requires supervision of the corporate bond market due to the risk of violating the issuance and auction of land use rights.
Therefore, according to data from the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA) based on the announcement of the HNX, in May (as of May 27), the real estate sector only had a few companies issue bonds. individually, such as: Hoi An Invest Joint Stock Company issued 4 rounds with a total value of 1,000 billion VND, My Phu Real Estate Trading and Investment Company Limited issued one tranche with a value of 700 billion VND; An Gia Real Estate Joint Stock Company also issued VND 300 billion,…
Previously, research by VnDirect Securities showed that corporate bonds accounted for 40% of the total issued value in the first quarter of 2022, with a growth rate of up to 73.1% and 25.2% compared to the previous quarter. same period in 2021 and the first quarter of 2022.
According to VNDirect Securities Joint Stock Company, the real estate industry is facing many challenges, affecting the industry’s outlook. Specifically, rising interest rates affect home-buying decisions, rising material prices may increase housing prices and tightening bank loans to the real estate sector, stricter supervision of bond issuance. corporate bonds (bonds).
According to VNDirect, investors may face challenges in raising capital in the next few quarters. Therefore, sales activities will probably be boosted while land bank expansion will slow down, helping house prices cool down in the remaining quarters of the year. However, real estate businesses with large ready-to-sell product funds and healthy balance sheets will still enjoy stable profit growth in 2022 – 2023. In the long-term, the market outlook remains positive. .
Experts say that the issuance of corporate bonds, especially in the real estate sector, will be strictly controlled. In the context of tightening credit to the real estate sector and closely monitoring corporate bond issuance, Vietnamese investors may face challenges in raising capital in the next few quarters.
Credit tightening is also expected by experts to see a supply recovery trend in 2022, when developers will focus on boosting sales to improve cash flow. .
Sharing in the press, economic expert Dinh The Hien said that real estate prices are still increasing, but people who want to resell can not sell even though they have reduced prices below the common level. Accordingly, in this context, businesses, entrepreneurs or investors who are surfing strongly and using a lot of borrowed capital will face difficulties.
Mr. Hien analyzed, many people poured into investing in an industry, the price increased. However, according to the law of supply and demand, when supply is high but demand is not there, prices will be reduced. The current market has pushed the virtual supply to many times higher than the real demand of real estate buyers.
Mr. Hien forecast that in the second half of this year, the price of standard apartments in Ho Chi Minh City. HCM will fluctuate slightly. As for all other segments such as land plots, townhouses… that have pushed prices up too much, they will lose liquidity for a long time if they continue to hold high selling prices like now. It is entirely possible that investors use financial leverage, reducing the selling price by 20-30% compared to the market.
Mr. Su Ngoc Khuong, Senior Director of Investment Division Savills Vietnam, said that there are 3 problems that the market will face, which is low supply, high selling price, and slow liquidity.
According to Mr. Khuong, the reason for the illiquidity of the market is because the land fund is no longer developing new projects, projects are congested due to legal reasons, and thirdly, investors push their expected profits too high.
“These problems lead to no liquidity because people’s ability to pay is limited. However, compared to 2002 and 2003, the transaction is still more and for June and July every year, the liquidity is not high, so it should be paid more attention. And when the supply is limited, that is an advantage for cities around Ho Chi Minh City. In Ho Chi Minh City, transactions are more convenient and liquidity is available because the price in this market is still softer, “said Mr. Khuong.
Mr. Khuong emphasized that the selling price in the primary market was very high, but the liquidity in the secondary market slowed down because groups of customers who bought for investment always expected a higher profit margin than before. After keeping real estate in the context of limited supply, the secondary price push in the near future is possible but the liquidity is very low. This is the paradox of the market right now.
According to the expert, at times when prices increase, many people still want to buy, but for F2 and F3 investors, they will be very careful before buying real estate if they have to use financial leverage. As for real buyers, the high secondary price will be a big obstacle. Forming the real estate market is having housing products but low occupancy rates. The reason is that secondary investors do not lower the selling price and people with real housing needs cannot afford it because the price is too high. Mr. Khuong said that it is necessary to have a healthy supply problem so that prices can increase but the market still develops in a sustainable way.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
