Will the Russia-Ukraine war ever come to an end?

With the calculations of the parties, the war in Ukraine has lasted for the 100th day, but there is no sign of ending. Russia, Ukraine and other parties involved are beginning to take a beating from the consequences of this conflict. The idea that Russia’s campaign in Ukraine is a war with only Moscow and Kiev, but in fact it is not. Because of what is happening in the Ukraine battlefield, there is also the involvement of the US, NATO, the EU … when these parties actively provide military and economic support to Kiev.

According to experts, it is the involvement of the West with different levels and ways that makes the Russia-Ukraine conflict protracted. It is said that the results on the ground will determine the final success or failure on the negotiating table to end the current hostilities.

The advantage belongs to Russia

According to Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai, it is the military and economic support of the West to Ukraine that is the main reason for the continuing crisis between Moscow and Kiev. Without that backing, he argued, it would be difficult for Ukraine to resist the might of the Russian military.

“Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a war between Russia and NATO, led by the United States. Its goal is to re-establish a new world order. Russia and some countries do not accept the unipolar world outlined by the US and want through the military campaign in Ukraine to re-establish a new world order, a multipolar world.“, Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai talked about the deep purpose of the war.

With the recent developments on the ground in Ukraine, some argue that Russia itself is suffering defeat. However, Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai said that this assessment is not completely accurate, because in the current war, Moscow is not only fighting with one Ukraine, but also Russia’s confrontation with 30 countries – countries that are currently fighting against each other. effectively financed Kiev, continued to fight with the Russian army to weaken Moscow in all aspects.

“CRussia’s special military operation in Ukraine has been going on for 100 days, Russia not only maintained the war, but also attacked and achieved some results. So far, Russia has controlled a number of cities in eastern Ukraine, the most important of which are Kherson, the seaport of Mariupol, Snake Island, as well as the coasts along the Mediterranean.

NATO countries provide weapons, money, intelligence to Ukraine, and impose a series of unprecedented sanctions on Russia. However, Russia still prevails on the battlefield and Moscow does not accept defeat“, Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai analyzed.

The war between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to end soon once the US and its allies continue to “pump” weapons to Kiev.

Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai

The US and its allies are actively providing military aid and equipment for Ukraine to deal with Russia. To date, Washington has “pumped” Ukraine $ 14 billion, while recently the administration of President Joe Biden officially approved an additional subsidy of $ 40 billion for Kiev. The United States also played a leading role, mobilizing military assistance for Kiev, with the participation of 40 countries.

However, this support is not endless. The US provided Ukraine with a grenade launcher system, but did not provide the long-range missile system that Kiev requested. Meanwhile, Germany has yet to fulfill its promises of arms aid to Ukraine, although Prime Minister Olaf Scholz has publicly stated that it will provide more weapons to help Kiev defend against Russia.

Obviously, at the present time, America and its allies still preach with the manifesto “The future is for the Ukrainians to decide”. But in reality, Kiev’s choice is shaped by the level of Western support. Many analysts believe that, without external weapons, it is difficult for Ukraine to withstand for a long time strong attacks from Russia.

Commenting on how to deploy Russia’s military campaign, expert Nguyen Quang Khai said that the damage that Moscow must receive is due to subjectivity. Russia used a lot of ground troops, so the Ukrainian side responded strongly and did not predict the true capacity of Kiev when it still possessed many types of weapons. Although highly appreciated, the Russian army did not easily crush Ukraine “soon”. Overall, despite the losses, Russia still prevailed on the battlefield.

Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai said that, in parallel with the deployment of the military campaign in Ukraine, in Russia, it still ensures economic factors, maintains production and ensures people’s welfare. This is possible because Moscow has made previous calculations, preparing for the scenario to happen.

The West has imposed a series of sanctions against Russia after it conducted a large-scale military operation in Ukraine at the end of February. Recently, the EU launched the 6th sanctions against Moscow, including orders against Russia’s oil supply is transported by sea. The embargo of the US and its allies is said to be one of the reasons why inflation in the US and Europe has skyrocketed.

“While the prices of oil, gas, grains, wheat, etc. have increased rapidly, Russia is the main producer and exporter of this commodity. This is also a major source of national budget revenue. Therefore, those sanctions are not weakening Russia but are having the opposite effect. Accordingly, European countries face many difficulties in the face of shortages of food, gas, inflation, etc. The embargo is a double-edged sword for the West.”, emphasized Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai.

Meanwhile, in terms of politics, the development of the war situation in Ukraine has caused the US and its allies to show signs of making concessions to Russia when Western leaders and officials began to increase the level of communication with Russia. Moscow side to discuss solutions to end the crisis.

When will the war end?

Currently, some sources from Russia believe that Moscow can fulfill its goals and end the special military operation by the end of the year. According to Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may end sooner, even by the end of next autumn, if the parties accept to “de-escalate”.

“Why end at the end of Autumn? Because the end of autumn is the beginning of winter. At that time, European countries will face many difficulties because of the lack of oil and gas to serve their heating needs. In February, many residential systems lacked gas fuel, while heating demand increased. They have to use many different methods to keep warm and fight cold“, Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai said.

Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai explained, stemming from that urgent need, Europe will have to find a way to “bargain” with Russia, even making certain concessions to Moscow to solve the gas shortage situation. across the continent. Because, the demand for gas will increase in the winter of this year.

Also according to Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai, the war in Ukraine could end even sooner if the West stops supplying weapons to Kiev. However, as long as Washington and European countries still provide lethal weapons to Ukraine, the war will continue and will never end.

Sharing the same view, Colonel Nguyen Minh Tam, Director of the Center for Scientific Documentation, Academy of Politics of the People’s Public Security, said that up to now, after 100 days of war, no international expert has time to end the war.

“On the side of Moscow, the head of the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the country’s army will end hostilities after fulfilling all the set goals. And that goal is none other than what the Kremlin has declared is the ‘de-fascist and demilitarization’ of Ukraine, returning the country to the neutral state it once was.

However, the achievement of those goals by the Russians by military means combined with diplomacy and the policy of public safety is in danger of prolonging because the Kiev side has yet to show a signal of ‘de-escalation’ in the face of pressure from America and NATO. That’s the main reason why the war can’t end soon“, Colonel Nguyen Minh Tam analyzed.

Colonel Nguyen Minh Tam pointed out that, in the current context, it was only when it became clear that the Ukrainian army and national guard suffered heavy losses, fell into a passive position on the battlefield and was no longer able to win. Only the US and the West will consider the “negotiation” option.

According to Colonel Nguyen Minh Tam, with what has been achieved on the battlefield, the Russian army will certainly not stop until they have done two things. One is to break down the backbone of the Ukrainian army, especially by eliminating most of the neo-fascist organizations, radical nationalists with roots in western Ukraine. The second is to strengthen the rear areas, implement the policy of people’s welfare, restore the normal life of the Ukrainian people, and help them rebuild and develop the economy.

Talking about the actual end of the war, a Vietnamese security expert said that the Ukrainian people are the victims of the war and they will decide the fate of the war. He explained, if the Ukrainians stand up, they will decide their own fate, opening a new era for Ukraine, bringing this country out of dependence on the West, being torn apart and transformed. become “pawns” on the strategic chessboard of big countries.

In the current situation, within the United States, NATO and Europe, there are conflicts and conflicting views regarding the supply of weapons to Ukraine. The protracted war resulted in high inflation, fuel and food shortages across the globe.

“The total war has only been going on for about 100 days, and it is not yet finished, so the US, NATO and EU will have policies to adjust and adapt flexibly to the situation in order to achieve the foreign policy goal of exerting strength. put strong pressure on Russia in all aspects, while ensuring domestic goals such as economic regulation, inflation control as well as reassuring people’s hearts…“, said Mr. Nguyen Quang Khai.

In the context that the two sides are still struggling and the advantages in the field are not really clear, the conflict is unlikely to end soon. As for the current Russia-Ukraine case, that will only happen when Moscow achieves its goals, while Kiev “know me, know me” and accept to sit at the negotiating table.

Disagreements and lack of trust are the factors that make negotiations between Russia and Ukraine deadlocked and have not come to an end. However, Turkey’s relentless efforts are also seen as a positive signal for the dialogue process between the two sides, opening the door to ending the current crisis.

“Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the country is ready to hold talks between Russia and Ukraine, with the participation of the United Nations representative. Ankara will also act as an intermediary for the export of Russian wheat, cereals and nitrogen fertilizers to European countries and other countries. If the embargo continues, European countries will face difficulties“, Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai shared.

Commenting on the end of Russia’s special military campaign in Ukraine, expert Nguyen Quang Khai said that in the end Russia will win and the world order will also be redrawn. Moscow’s victory over Kiev also means victory over both NATO and the US.

“With this scenario, Russia will play a very important role, equal to that of other countries in Europe. Moscow must have a greater role, participating in the collective security mechanism of Europe. Russia wants its interests guaranteed“, Ambassador Nguyen Quang Khai said.