Banks have ‘excess money’ because they run out of credit ‘rooms’?
In the newly released macro report, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) cited the State Bank’s data that credit growth as of May 27, 2022 reached 7.75%, the highest level in the past 10 years. , and at the same time double the growth in the same period last year. However, the fact that commercial banks have all run out of credit room while the State Bank has not yet loosened the room has prevented more credit from being pushed out in the last days of May. This movement has caused interest rates in the market to fall. Interbank rates fell sharply, overnight interest rates fell to the lowest level since April 2021.
On the other hand, the 2% interest rate support package with a scale of 40 trillion (equivalent to 2 million billion of low-interest capital) was officially approved in May and has been implemented by the State Bank of Vietnam. NHMs. In the second half of the year, when the State Bank expands the credit room for commercial banks, this interest rate compensation package will be the driving force to help credit continue to grow strongly.
In the foreign currency market, in May, the VND decreased by 0.99% against the USD. Compared to the end of 2021, the VND has also decreased by 1.62%. Meanwhile, in the world market, the DXY index – a measure of the greenback’s strength – fell 1.17% in May but is still up 6.36% from the beginning of the year.
In May, the Fed officially raised interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, the first time since 2000. However, this decision of the Fed is consistent with previous statements as well as investors’ expectations and no longer causes the DXY index to increase as strongly as before. Meanwhile, the State Bank raised the selling rate for USD, from 23,050 by 200 VND, to 23,250 VND/USD, the first time since January 2022.
With the easing of the DXY index since the first half of May while Vietnam still maintains a stable macro economy and large foreign exchange reserves, BVSC believes that exchange rate fluctuations in the near future next year will not be too large, the whole year fluctuates around +/-2%.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
