Former US official predicts the end of Ukraine-Russia conflict

“Ukraine Russia will not be defeated, and Washington must convince Kiev to negotiate with Moscow to end the conflict,” said Hugh De Santis, who oversaw policymaking on arms control and NATO affairs in the Ronald Reagan administration. determined.

“Defeating Russian forces on the battlefield and restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity will be punishment for the Russian military campaign,” De Santis wrote in The National Interest magazine on June 4.

“But is it worth the cost of the more losses in Ukraine, the possibility of a broader war in which tactical or chemical nuclear weapons could be used, making further disruption to the world economy and a new polarization of Europe?” asked Mr. De Santas.

According to a former State Department official, the answer to that question is no. A victory for the Ukrainian army is unlikely, and a negotiated outcome is the only realistic goal. Therefore, the US and its allies must persuade Ukraine to end this war, including by imposing limits on further military aid.

Washington actively supported Kiev throughout the conflict, providing Kiev with weapons, funds, and intelligence. In May, US President Joe Biden approved a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine.

Mr. De Santis pointed out that President Volodymyr Zelensky and “his supporters in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states” should accept the fact that Ukraine will become a neutral country and it will have to hand over Donbass and Crimea to Russia for successful peace talks”.

Senior US and EU officials have also recently determined that negotiations are a priority to resolve the conflict as Russian forces continue their steady advance in the Donbass.

Last week, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that “a negotiated outcome is a reasonable option, but both sides must come to this choice for themselves”.

A few days earlier, EU foreign and security policy chief Josep Borrell urged the European Union to increase arms deliveries to Ukraine and impose even more sanctions on Russia. , but explained that this was to help Kiev strengthen its position in future peace negotiations with Moscow. Meanwhile, just over a month ago, Mr. Borrell once emphasized, “Ukraine must win this war on the battlefield”.

Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine at the end of February, after accusing Kiev of failing to fulfill the terms of the Minsk agreement, first signed in 2014 and eventually Moscow’s recognition of the self-proclaimed Donbass republics Donetsk and Lugansk. The Minsk agreement brokered by Germany and France was designed to give the breakaway regions special status in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has since demanded that Ukraine officially declare itself a neutral country and will never join the military bloc. NATO led by the US. Kiev insists the Russian attack is completely unprovoked and rejects claims it is planning to retake the two republics in the Donbass by force.