In 5 years, Vietnam’s GDP ranks third in Southeast Asia, equal to Thailand, what about GDP per capita?
As of 2021, Vietnam’s GDP per capita is ranked 6th in Southeast Asia, after Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.
16 years ago, when talking with Mr. IL Houng Lee, the head of the representative office of the IMF in Vietnam at that time, a Vietnamese reporter quoted the forecast of some researchers: Vietnam’s per capita income in 2005 reached over 600 USD (according to IMF, it was only 552 USD). Some Vietnamese researchers hypothesize that if the wealthier countries in ASEAN stop developing, it will take Vietnam about 5 years to catch up with Indonesia and the Philippines, 20 years with Thailand, 24 years with Malaysia, 38 years. with Brunei and 40 years with Singapore.
Mr. IL Houng Lee said that these analyzes are very interesting and can accurately reflect the real disparity in economic development. However, they also may not reflect the true extent of development disparities across economies.
If based on the assumption that all countries keep the average development rate as in the past 10 years, the time for Vietnam to catch up with other countries is somewhat longer.
“For example, it may take Vietnam 18 years to catch up with Indonesia, 34 years with Thailand and 197 years with Singapore. The gap with Singapore is so large because its development speed is also very fast in the past 10 years” – Mr. IL Houng Lee said. At that time, Vietnam was ranked 7th among 10 ASEAN member countries in terms of income level and economic development.
If at the present time, still calculating according to this formula, Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2021 will reach 3,743 USD (according to the IMF). If we assume that the countries with more average GDP in ASEAN stop developing, it will take Vietnam about 3 years to catch up with Indonesia, 13 years with Thailand, 19 years with Malaysia and 50 years with Singapore.
If based on the assumption that all the countries mentioned above keep the average development rate as in the past 10 years (calculated in the period 2012-2021), then it may take Vietnam 8 years to catch up. Indonesia, 22 years with Thailand, 56 years with Malaysia and 102 years with Singapore.
Currently, the IMF forecasts that Vietnam will only take more than 4 years to surpass Indonesia in terms of GDP per capita..
According to the IMF’s forecast, by 2026, Vietnam will rise to the 4th place in the ASEAN-6 group in terms of GDP per capita, reaching 6,140 USD/person. Behind Singapore ($97,316/person), Malaysia ($17,121/person), Thailand ($9,480/person) and surpassing Indonesia ($6,125/person), Philippines ($4,801/person).
IMF data and forecasts
In general, in Southeast Asia, by 2026, Vietnam’s GDP per capita will rank fifth in the region, after Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Also according to the IMF’s forecast, by 2025, Vietnam will rise to third in Southeast Asia in terms of economic size with a GDP of $571.12 billion. Behind Indonesia ($1630 billion) and Thailand ($632.45 billion) and surpassing Malaysia ($556 billion), Philippines ($523.53 billion), Singapore ($496.81 billion).
Thus, in the near future, Vietnam’s GDP per capita will still be behind Thailand, however, Vietnam will have a promotion in both GDP and GDP per capita in the ASEAN-6 group.
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
