Global inflation may be about to peak

The US firm’s experts found that the price of semiconductors has fallen 14% since the middle of last year, spot container freight rates are down 26% from their September 2021 peak and fertilizer prices in North America. down 24% compared to March this year, contributing to dragging down food prices.

Although promising signs have begun to appear, experts advise consumers not to “release the door” anytime soon. For example, in the UK, economist George Buckley of Investment Bank Nomura pointed out that other price indexes have barely fallen and the current dramatic ceiling in energy prices will drag the peak of inflation until next October.

Inflation in the UK is currently at 9%, the highest in 40 years and the Bank of England (BOE) warned inflation could hit double digits by October this year.

A store in Altrincham – England of the low-cost supermarket chain Poundland Photo: REUTERS

Earlier, on June 8, despite stressing that “we are not on the verge of a recession”, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 3%, compared to 3%. with a 4.5% rate introduced at the end of last year.

According to OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, the average inflation of the member countries of this organization is likely to approach 9% this year, double the previous forecast.

The OECD represents 38 countries, including most of the world’s most developed economies. The organization believes that soaring fuel and food prices, combined with overloaded supply chains and lockdowns due to Covid-19, especially in China, have exacerbated the economic crisis.

The most obvious impact is in Europe. According to the newspaper The New York Times, the growth rate in the UK could reach 3.6% this year but next year will be 0%. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is forecast to grow 2% lower this year and next, while growth in the US could slow to 2.5% this year and 1.2% next year. after.