US-China competition, Russia conflict

The Straits Times newspaper reported that after 2 years, it was forced to cancel because of the pandemic Covid-19, the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue summit organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), will return to the lion island nation from June 10-12, bringing together about 500 delegates, including ministers and senior defense officials, diplomats and arms manufacturers from 42 countries attended. As is customary, the event at the Shangri-La Hotel in Orchard Road, Singapore will see a series of speeches, sessions and live debates as well as private meetings on the sidelines of the conference.

In a statement released on June 9, Singapore’s Ministry of Defense said that the Shangri-La Dialogue “provided a valuable, open and neutral forum for the exchange of views on issues as well as national defense and security”. The summit is also a place for senior defense officials to propose constructive solutions to regional problems, “which is rarely more necessary at a time of declining trust and increasing uncertainty.” tensions between the US and China” as it is today, according to James Crabtree, IISS Asia director.

Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is expected to deliver a keynote address to open the conference today, June 10, referring to his country’s changing strategic outlook, the influence of Russia – Ukraine war and security challenges in the Asia-Pacific. The last Japanese prime minister to serve as keynote speaker at the Shangri-La Dialogue was Abe Shinzo in 2014.

In addition to concerns about the security implications when countries are accelerating their post-Covid-19 recovery, observers expect the forum will shed light on the view and stance of the US and China in the region. relationship with the region.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will speak on Washington’s defense policy in the Indo-Pacific on June 11. One day later, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe will give a speech on Beijing’s vision for the regional order in the Asia-Pacific.

The two defense leaders of the United States and China is also expected to have direct contact on the sidelines of the conference, the first time since President Joe Biden took office at the White House in January 2021, to discuss how to control competition between superpowers, in the context of bilateral tensions over many issues, including military moves in the South China Sea and Beijing’s efforts to expand influence with island nations in the Pacific. Mr. Austin and Mr. Wei had a phone call in April, weeks before Mr. Biden made a statement about Taiwan (China), which angered Beijing.

The Shangri-La Dialogue events have previously been seen as an opportunity for the military leaders of the world’s two top economies to meet, and efforts to reduce hostilities are ongoing.

A senior Biden administration official told Reuters the focus of US-China contacts at this year’s summit will be on trying to set the rails that protect the bilateral relationship and ensure that disagreement will not turn into some kind of military misunderstanding or miscommunication. Chinese media also said that Beijing will use the conference as an opportunity to discuss the possibility of cooperation with the US.

Associate Professor Dylan Loh, majoring in Public Policy and Global Affairs at Nanyang Technological University (Singapore), said that although there are not many expectations for the US – China to achieve any significant results. from these contacts, but he hopes it will be a small step in restoring more regular lines of communication between the two countries.

As Steven Okun, a senior adviser at Singapore-based geostrategic consulting firm McLarty Associates, noted, leaders in Southeast Asia have been very clear to Washington and Beijing about their priorities. .

“We don’t want to be forced to choose whether to have diplomatic or economic relations with one side or the other,” Okun said. The expert added, the business community will also be watching this year’s event to see how the superpowers position themselves, especially after the US proposed the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. for Prosperity (IPEF) last month as an alternative to China’s growing commercial presence in the region.

Although the Shangri-La Dialogue 2022 focuses on Asia’s security issues, the Russia-Ukraine crisis will also be a major topic of discussion. According to an informed source, Ukraine sent a delegation, including Deputy Prime Minister Dmytro Senik to the conference, while the Russian side will not participate. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will give an online speech before the conference on June 11, according to organizers.

They are also expected to discuss growing security concerns about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, after Pyongyang has carried out at least 18 weapons tests, including including ballistic missiles, since the beginning of this year. Two weeks ago, China and Russia vetoed a US proposal to impose more UN Security Council sanctions on North Korea.

The US has criticized China and Russia for “putting each other’s strategic relationship above world security”. However, representatives of Beijing and Moscow have flatly denied this allegation.

Tuan Anh