“Now is a great opportunity for investors to consider disbursing money into good businesses with strong growth potential.”
Vietnam’s stock market is going through a period that is not really positive. After rising to the peak of 1,520 points at the beginning of April, the VN-Index had a strong correction and ended the trading session on April 20, only close to 1,385 points. The sudden sharp drop of the market recently made many investments become disoriented.
In the current volatile context, Mr. Tran Hai Ha – General Director of MB Securities (MBS) shared his views on the market.
Vietnam’s stock market has continuously declined in recent times, VN-Index has dropped by nearly 140 points in a series of 8/9 consecutive declines, liquidity has decreased by about 20% compared to the previous 2 weeks. what?
Mr. Tran Hai Ha: As the CEO of a leading securities company, serving more than 600,000 investors with a total net asset value (NAV) of up to 3 billion USD, I understand the current pressure of investors when their assets decrease continuously. Therefore, it is my desire and responsibility to try to do everything in my power to minimize losses to investors.
VN-Index has dropped about 10%, since the historical peak, with the numbers that speak: Continuously decreased for the past 8/9 sessions (only 1 retracement); Liquidity decreased by 20% of the whole market and many investors are suffering losses including new or experienced investors. The continuous decline of the market came from a somewhat overreaction due to concerns and selling pressure of investors/speculators upon seeing information on handling market manipulation acts, cleaning up the market. environment and practice of raising capital through bonds of the authorities… This action of the regulatory agencies will certainly bring a healthier “playing field” to all domestic and foreign investors. in the medium and long term.
A small observation: Although the liquidity since the beginning of April has decreased by 12.5% compared to March, it is still 25.8% higher than the average level in April last year. When the cash flow is still in the market looking for opportunities, I think that when the difficulties are over and fear no longer prevails, with the forecast of inflation and rising interest rates, the stock market will still be the channel. investment is likely to bring good results and accordingly is still the channel for cash flow.
We all know that the stock market is an important capital mobilization channel of the Vietnamese economy. After more than 20 years of developing the market size, it has reached 120% of GDP at one point, the ideal level for the stock market to share the burden of raising capital for the economy with the traditional commercial banking system. However, with such a strong decline, in your opinion, if it continues to decrease, will it cause a collapse of the stock market? If so, how does it affect the economy?
Mr. Tran Hai Ha: In my view, the increase/decrease volatility in the stock market over time is a normal phenomenon and investors are overreacting and worrying. In the long term, the stock market grows on the basis of healthy growth of the economy and corporate profits. The fluctuations and adjustments of the stock market are temporary in nature. For example, in 2020 with the shock of the Covid-19 epidemic, the stock market experienced the strongest decline of the VN-Index up to 35%, but then the market regained all the lost points even high growth to the present period.
Although the stock market is having a strong downward correction, I think there will not be a breakdown of the stock market in the sense that the stock market continues to decline sharply, liquidity declines and investors leave the market (enterprises stop, delisting, investors do not participate…).
The stock market has had a development foundation for more than 20 years, the legal system is quite complete and suitable with the development process of the Vietnamese stock market, with all the main members in the market such as the CQQL, securities companies, companies. Fund managers, listed companies and investors have grown to a new and solid level and are promoting, playing an essential role in mobilizing capital for the economy.
Besides, I think there have been lessons in stock market management, so dealing with speculative misconduct in the market is the right thing to do towards a comprehensive development. , healthy, so that the stock market continues to move towards a larger market capitalization of 120-150% of GDP in the near future. In addition, it must be added that as a person who has been in contact with many elites in the investment and analysis world, I have discussed and realized that with the current adjustment level, the stock market has opened up a lot of investment opportunities. attractive, which is not possible when the stock market is still anchored at a high level in the past. This means that when the market falls to a certain level, there will immediately appear smart money looking to buy the diamonds of the economy at a discounted price, so there will be no prospect of the market falling. consecutive points, liquidity dropped… as I confirmed above.
Currently, the openness of Vietnam’s stock market is very high with over 1,500 listed and traded companies and nearly 5 million investor accounts, so the negative movements of the stock market will have a great influence on the economy. The decline of the stock market will reduce the ability to mobilize capital for the economy, thereby significantly affecting the development of the national economy.
In my opinion, the valuation of the Vietnam stock market is currently at an attractive level when the current average PE on the HSX is 16.3 times lower than the average of the Asian markets at 19.6 times. while the prospects for economic growth and corporate profits in Vietnam are currently very positive.
He mentioned that the regulator has strongly cleaned up the market in the past time by eliminating market manipulation and dealing with businesses that raise capital through bonds that are not in compliance with legal regulations. , is it true that this caused a sharp decline in both transaction size, transaction value and market capitalization? And can this be considered the cause of the shock reduction as well as the possibility of further reduction in the near future?
Mr. Tran Hai Ha: The CQQL’s cleaning of the market may have caused a recent correction in scores and a drop in liquidity, but we think this is absolutely necessary for the sustainable and healthy development of the market. market. Even more, it is necessary to deal with all the individual “worms” that affect the development of the stock market in the long term.
I think that the CQQL will protect the right things to the end and resolutely deal with the wrong acts. This assertiveness of management agencies will positively affect the stock market in the long term. In the short term, the market may be very emotional, however, when it gradually calms down and under the influence of the CQQL, the rumors and unfounded speculations and become rational again, the correction in the past time. may have created many attractive investment opportunities as I discussed above.
In short, this purge may have short-term effects (as we have seen) but in the long term it is definitely a solid reinforcement for Vietnam’s stock market to continue to develop to new heights.
One more short question, would you like to share your personal views on the market prospects in the near future? Is this an opportunity for “rational” investors when the market has dropped nearly 10% from its peak?
Mr. Tran Hai Ha: Yes, completely agree with you, I still think this is a very good opportunity for investors to consider, disburse and invest in good businesses with strong growth potential. Why do I have that opinion? Because we all know that in the long term, the stock market goes up thanks to the expectation of the growth of corporate profits and the increasing and obvious contribution of the stock market to the economy. Short-term fluctuations are just an opportunity for rational, wise and brave investors to reap long-term fruits, as I have heard from somewhere: “Investing is sometimes a job. very lonely.”
at Blogtuan.info – Source: cafebiz.vn – Read the original article here
