CDC launches epidemic prediction center to warn communities about health threats

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention launched a new center on Tuesday that aims to model and predict the pathways of infectious diseases like Covid, then relay that information to the public along with federal, state and local government.

Called the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analysis, the CDC’s subdivision begins work in late 2021, analyzing data to predict the impact of omicron variation in the US. health threat.

Officials have likened the center to a sort of National Weather Service for infectious diseases. In the way that the weather agency warns people of approaching storms, they said, the CFA can notify people of outbreaks in advance.

“How do we know that we need to start using and developing a vaccine? How do we know that we need to deploy different antiviral drugs? How do we know that?” do we need to change personal behavior when we go out to dinner or to the movies? The kind of information that we’re trying to develop in forecasting will be very similar to that,” said Dr. Dylan George, operations director of the CFA, said in a press call.

During the first wave of Omicrons, George added, the CFA gave government leaders “several weeks notice of the timing of the rally.” That affects rocket booster policies, travel restrictions and Covid testing in schools.

CDC has forecast and analyze data on infectious diseases, but its information may not be complete.

“Currently, CDC does not have the capacity or authority to direct the collection of public health data,” said Dr. Caitlin Rivers, deputy director of the CFA. That restriction “could be a tough spot,” she added.

“One of our aspirations in the future is to work with colleagues to establish systems that will allow us to estimate how many people are infected at a given time, regardless of the decision to consider.” What is their experience,” said Dr. Marc Lipsitch, director of the CFA. for science.

The center’s initial funding came from the American Rescue Plan, George said, and it has awarded $21 million to academic institutions and $5 million to federal partners to advance the modeling and forecasting efforts.

But it will probably take time for the center’s efforts to grow.

“Back in the ’50s and ’60s, it was really hard to do numerical weather forecasts,” says George. “We’re pretty good these days.” consistent and sustainable as we go.”

at Blogtuan.info – Source: nbcnews.com – Read the original article here