Sweden and Finland at the historic crossroads: Neutrality or NATO

Over the years, the percentage of support for Finland’s accession NATO only 20-25%. However, since Russia waged war military service in Ukraine the share rose to a record 76% in the most recent public opinion poll.

In Sweden, support for joining NATO is 57%, much higher than it was before Russia launched its military campaign in Ukraine.

Russia strongly opposes Finland and Sweden join NATO said that the expansion of the Western military alliance was part of the reason it launched its military campaign in Ukraine.

Decision time

It is expected that Finnish President Sauli Niinisto will announce his position on joining NATO on May 12 (local time). The ruling parties of both Finland and Sweden will make their official position later this week.

If the answer is yes, the two parliaments will vote in favor of joining NATO and then the application process can begin.

While the Finnish Social Democrats are highly likely to support joining NATO, the Swedish Social Democrats remain divided on the issue and are currently conducting internal consultations. However, Sweden’s ruling party appears to be leaning in favor of joining a military alliance.

“Things look like they’re going to go that way,” said former Finnish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom.

The United States expressed confidence that it can address security concerns for countries in the process from application to full membership.

Why choose the present time?

Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine makes Sweden and Finland feel “insecure”.

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said that joining the alliance was “decided” as soon as Russia’s operation in Ukraine began on February 24.

Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist also said that February 24 is the time for the country to rethink its position. In November 2021, Hultqvist pledged that Sweden would never join NATO, but now he admits that the defense of the Nordic region will be enhanced if both countries join NATO.

Many Finns and Swedes look to NATO in the belief that a military alliance will make them safer in an unstable Europe.

For Finns, events in Ukraine bring back memories of the 1939 Winter War with the Soviet Union.

Keeping track of the Ukraine conflict is like looking back at history, said Iro Sarkka, a political scientist at Helsiki University. The Finns are looking at the 1,340 km common border with Russia and thinking, “Will that happen to us?”.

Sweden has also felt threatened in recent years, when it has repeatedly accused Russian military aircraft of violating its airspace.

In 2014, Sweden was “unsettled” when it was reported that a Russian submarine was lurking in the shallow waters of the Stockholm archipelago.

Two years later, the Swedish army returned to Gotland, a small but strategically important island in the Baltic Sea after being left empty for two decades.

What will change?

There will be certain changes when NATO and Sweden join NATO, although not much. In fact, Sweden and Finland have been official partners of NATO since 1994 and since then have also been significant contributors to the alliance. Both countries have participated in a number of NATO missions since the end of the Cold War.

The most significant change is the adoption of Article 5 of NATO, which treats an attack on one member state as an attack on all. For the first time ever, Finland and Sweden can receive security guarantees from nuclear states.

Although public opinion quickly turned in favor of joining NATO, historian Henrik Meinander argues that Finland was mentally prepared for it. Small steps towards NATO have been taken since the breakup of the Soviet Union.

In 1992, Finland purchased 64 fighter aircraft from the United States. Three years later, it joined the European Union, along with Sweden. Every time the Finnish government since then has weighed in on the “NATO option”. The army of this nation of 5.5 million people has a wartime strength of 280,000 soldiers and a total of 900,000 reserves.

Sweden took a different path in the 1990s, reducing the size of its military and shifting priorities from territorial defense to peacekeeping missions around the world. However, everything changed in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea.

Conscription was reinstated and military spending increased. In 2018, every household received a military handbook titled “If Crisis or War Happens”. It was the first time Sweden had distributed such handbooks since 1991.

Currently, Finland has achieved defense spending 2% of GDP, the target level set by NATO for members. Sweden is also pushing for similar plans.

Risks of provoking Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly emphasized that NATO’s continued expansion is the reason for the country’s military operation in Ukraine. Therefore, the entry of Sweden and Finland into this military alliance would be considered a provocation.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that it had warned both Sweden and Finland of “consequences” if it joined NATO. Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned that if this happened, Russia could deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, the Russian enclave between Poland and Lithuania.

While not denying these threats, former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb said more realistic threats could include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and airspace violations.

Would it be safer to join NATO, Sweden and Finland?

In Sweden, many people believe that joining NATO will not make the country safer.

Deborah Solomon, of the Swedish Association for Arbitration and Peace, said NATO’s nuclear deterrence increased tensions and threatened to spark an arms race with Russia. This complicates peace efforts and makes Sweden a less secure place.

Another concern is that if Sweden joins the military alliance, it will lose its role as a global pioneer in nuclear disarmament efforts.

Meanwhile, former Finnish Foreign Minister Wallstrom recalled that NATO foreign ministers were pressured by the United States to not join the UN nuclear disarmament negotiations in 2019.

However, Swedish Defense Minister Hultqvist said that there is no contradiction between NATO membership and Sweden’s nuclear disarmament ambitions.

In Sweden, many NATO skeptics look back to the 1960s-1980s, when the country used its neutral position to become an international mediator and ally of the colonial world. Sweden was a vocal critic of the Soviet Union and the United States, and in the 1970s, Helsinki claimed that it was the only Western country to support South Africa’s anti-apartheid movement.

If Sweden joined NATO, it would “give up on its dream” of becoming a mediator, Solomon said.

Finland’s neutrality is very different. It was a condition of peace that the Soviet Union laid down in the “friendship agreement” of 1948. This was also seen as a pragmatic solution to the survival and maintenance of Finland’s independence.

Sweden’s neutrality is a matter of identity and ideology, while in Finland it is a question of existence, according to historian Henrik Meinander. Part of the reason Sweden is still arguing about NATO membership is because it sees Finland and the Baltics as a “buffer zone,” he said.

Finland has turned to the West since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Joining the EU brings not only economic benefits, but also security benefits.

Political scientist Sarkka thinks joining NATO was seen as too big a step for Finland in the early 1990s. However, times and views on risk have changed. Now most Finns say they are ready to join a military alliance.