Looking at the “lifebuoy” of VND 347,000 billion and two scenarios of GDP growth

One of the important factors affecting the macro-economy in 2022-2023 is the success or failure of the VND347,000 billion package in the Government’s Socio-economic Development and Recovery Program. If successful, this package will create an opportunity to quickly restore production, supply and labor chains, promote growth drivers, and strive to achieve the target of 6.5-7% average growth per year over the next five years. period 2021-2025.

But what is the reality and how to be successful? The question arises when the timeliness is the top requirement, while the major components of the package such as interest rate support, speeding up disbursement of public investment, etc. have not really been realized so far.

Since the above “lifebuoy” was formed, half a year has passed now…

Discussing this issue at the Vietnam Economic Forecasting Forum 2022-2023, the growth scenarios and prospects for a number of key economic sectors took place on the morning of May 12, experts said, to package 347 trillion real Becoming a “lifesaver” of people, businesses and the whole economy requires efforts from all parties. In it, the central role is that of the Government.

According to Mr. Phan Duc Hieu, Standing Member of the Economic Committee of the National Assembly, in terms of scale, the total amount of fiscal, monetary and other support of the Program is about 346,800 billion VND, equivalent to 4,700 billion VND. 24% of GDP.

Prior to this Program, in 2021, many fiscal and monetary policies to support people and businesses were implemented with a total scale of 269,464 billion VND, equivalent to 3.2% of GDP.

On the international level, the scale of fiscal and monetary support solutions in developed countries is about 10.9% of GDP and 8.6% of GDP, respectively; emerging countries is 4.3% GDP and 3.4% GDP; low-income countries (including Vietnam) are 3.2% GDP and 0.7% GDP.

“A number of surrounding countries have also issued similar support with different sizes: Thailand equivalent to 15% of GDP, Malaysia 8.8% of GDP, Indonesia 5.4% of GDP, China 6.1% of GDP… Compared with international and regional comparisons, the program of our country is relatively large in scale, suitable for the situation and situation in the country with the requirements of controlling macro risks”, said Mr. Hieu.

In the new context, in order to successfully implement the Government’s Socio-economic Development and Recovery Program, Mr. Phan Duc Hieu believes that it is necessary to meet 3 main requirements.

The firstmust urgently and promptly realize the support to people and businesses.

Secondefficiency, absorptive capacity, avoiding spreading, wasting resources are important requirements to help achieve the goal of recovery, rapid development of production and business, and growth promotion.

Tuesdaypublicity and transparency are both a solution and a requirement to improve the effectiveness, efficiency and complete the Program’s objectives.

The implementation of the Program must also be closely linked with other programs and tasks, such as the plan to restructure the economy, the overall strategy for COVID-19 prevention and control, the program to improve the business investment environment… , Mr. Hieu acknowledged.

“Each enterprise itself must first change itself to adapt to the new context. Enterprises need to be more dynamic, proactive, creative, better managed to better adapt to new business trends and habits. new consumption habits and new technology”, said Mr. Hieu.

2 GDP growth scenarios 2022-2023

At the forum, Dr. Can Van Luc – BIDV’s Chief Economist has updated his forecast for 2 scenarios for GDP growth in 2022-2023.

In the base scenario, Vietnam’s GDP will increase by 5.5-6% during this period. In the negative scenario, GDP in 2022-2023 will grow only 4.5-5%.

The variables in the above two scenarios will depend on how to prevent and control the COVID-19 epidemic; the effectiveness of the Program on Socio-Economic Development and Recovery 2022-2023 and Vietnam’s ability to minimize the impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

With the most positive scenario, the Government needs to implement many solutions, including persistently giving priority to the goal of macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation and effective policy coordination, especially between the government and the government. Fiscal policy, monetary policy and other macro policies in order to successfully implement the Socio-economic Recovery and Development Program, Dr. Recommended force.

Also, well manage gasoline prices, prices of other goods and services to control inflation at the target level of 4%; improve the capacity of analysis, forecasting, information sharing system to effectively serve the coordination of policies and control arising risks.

Along with that, it is necessary to continue to accelerate the process of perfecting institutions, building a legal corridor for the management and development of the green economy, digital economy, society and digital government; continue to remove barriers and bottlenecks in order to mobilize and free up resources, especially in the fields of infrastructure investment, land, construction, import and export procedures, and dissolution of enterprises.

According to Nguyen Tham