Stocks next week: Need more time to accumulate before new rally

With 2 increasing sessions and 3 decreasing sessions, for the whole week, VN-Index still up 0.2%. During the week, the index had 2 testing sessions of 1,300 points on June 1 and 2, but these tests could not maintain the threshold of 1,300 until the end of the session.

Analysts say that the psychological resistance level of 1,300 points is a challenge for the VN-Index, when it dropped for 2 sessions at the end of the week and has not yet overcome this resistance level.

Need to surpass 1,300 points to confirm the uptrend

Analyst from Mirae Asset Securities Joint Stock Company (Vietnam) said that after the recovery, VN-Index is in a sideways short-term state, to return to the uptrend, this index needs to surpass psychological threshold of 1,300 points.

The index’s short-term support is at 1,270 points and 1,257 points. VN-Index currently has a P/E (Coefficient between the market price of a stock and the income it brings) of 13.9 times. The short-term technical signal is at neutral level.

According to MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS), the market closed down at the end of the week, but it was still the third consecutive week of gains. In terms of cash flow, the closing span and the fact that the market can absorb more T+3 goods to the account is a positive side. The risk now is in the international market in the context that the domestic market is maintaining a long rising chain.

It is also understandable that the market has adjusted after the recent rally and if it continues to maintain a low correlation with the international market, the impact from the international market is not ominous, MBS said.

Regarding market movements, at the end of the trading week from May 30 to June 3, VN-Index increased by 0.2% to 1,287.98 points, HNX-Index decreased by 0.2% to 310.48 points. Trading value on HOSE increased by 6.6% from the previous week to VND 78,029 billion, corresponding to a decrease of 3.2% in volume to 2,798 million shares. The trading value on the HNX increased by 16% compared to the previous week, reaching 10,253 billion dong, equivalent to a volume increase of 3.7% to 420 million shares.

Community utility stocks gained the most in the past week with 9.4% of market capitalization thanks to the strong gain of electricity, water, petrol and gas stocks such as: REE up 3.8%, TDM up 8.9%, BWE up 10.2%, GAS up 12.9%…

Next was oil and gas stocks with an increase of 3.9% in market capitalization thanks to the benefit of the sharp increase in oil prices. Specifically, BSR increased by 15.9%, PVS increased by 10.6%, PVC increased by 10.2%, PVB increased by 6.4%, PVD increased by 4.1%…

Followed by consumer service stocks, which gained 1.6% of market capitalization. Strong gainers in this group such as: MWG up 4.4%, FRT up 2.6%, DGW up 1.4%…

The information technology group also increased by 1.3% in market capitalization; in which, the typical stock is FPT which increased by 2%. Industry also increased by 0.8% of market capitalization, consumer goods increased by 0.7%.

On the other hand, pharmaceutical and medical stocks lost 1.7% of market capitalization, banks fell 1.6%, financials fell 0.6%, and raw materials fell 0.3%.

Foreign investors were net buyers on both exchanges with a net value of VND 2,082.17 billion, equivalent to a net volume of 43.83 million shares.

In terms of net volume, FUEVFVND was the most net bought stock with 47.6 million fund certificates.

Followed by CTG with 4.8 million shares and HDB with 4.7 million shares. On the other hand, E1VFVN30 was the stock that was sold the most with 8.4 million fund certificates.

In the derivatives market, VN30 futures contracts are 9 to 14 points lower than the base index, showing that traders are still leaning towards the possibility that the market may soon correct again.

Saigon – Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS) said that the market last week was almost flat after 2 consecutive weeks of recovery, showing that this recovery is quite strong and reliable. still at a low but stable level during the past 3 weeks.

However, with the VN-Index approaching the psychological resistance level of 1,300 points and after 2 consecutive gaining weeks, it is likely that the market will face the possibility of a correction. In fact, the market had two declining sessions at the end of the week, the correction (if any) was not negative but would create an opportunity for the market to accumulate before having more positive moves.

From a technical analysis point of view, there is support for the market’s recovering trend, with the VN-Index bouncing away from the psychological resistance level of 1,200 points and almost touching the psychological resistance level of 1,300 points. , is the first milestone of the recovering wave.

However, the psychological resistance level of 1,300 points is challenging the VN-Index when the market has dropped for 2 sessions at the end of the week and has not yet overcome this resistance level and it is likely that the market is in an inevitable correction phase. , needed to accumulate more before a new rally in order to continue upwards.

According to SHS, the market has recovered strongly from the bottom but valuation is still at an attractive level when the market P/E is still around 14 times, many listed companies are still having attractive valuations. The ongoing correction will be an opportunity for long-term investors to increase the proportion of stocks.

With the recovery of the economy after the pandemic and the business results of listed companies also showing impressive profit growth in the first quarter, the current stock price level is still open to many people. long term investment opportunity. However, investors can wait for the opportunity to disburse in the corrections of the market.

World Stocks downward

Vietnam stocks were almost flat, in the context that all three main Wall Street indexes fell in the past week.

U.S. stocks fell sharply on June 3, sending all three major indexes lower for the past week, after better-than-expected jobs data in May bolstered speculation of higher-than-expected lifts. interest rates of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in the coming months.

Closing this session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%, to 32,899.70 points, thereby ending the week with a loss of 0.9%. The S&P 500 composite index fell 1.6 percent to 4,108.54 points, marking a 1.2 percent drop for the week. The Nasdaq Composite also lost 2.5% to 12,012.73, ending the week with a 1% drop.

Nonfarm payrolls totaled 390,000 jobs in May, higher than expectations for a 328,000 increase in jobs. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6% last month and wage growth slowed from 5.5% in the previous month to 5.2%.

Matt Peron, research director at Janus Henderson Investors (UK), said that although this is a sign that inflation is peaking, this increase in wages is still too high. Therefore, the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates will still be a “headwind” for the market.

US Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard continued to express a tough stance on inflation, when he said that the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until the end of September.

Previously, after the holiday from last weekend until the end of May 30, US stocks dropped for two consecutive sessions on May 31 and June 1, amid investors’ anxiety about the market. Inflation, the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates and weakening consumer confidence prevented the market from extending last week’s rally.

After that, Wall Street reversed to gain in the session of June 2 before the jobs data was released, in the context that the market was concerned about the impact of inflation and monetary policy.

Brad Bechtel, an analyst at US investment bank Jefferies, said that the stock market had a rare gain last week but has been on the defensive this week.

According to Mr. Bechtel, the market will swing back and forth over the next few months until investors get some solid evidence that inflation is falling.

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