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The Taliban faces a series of threats from ISIS and insurgents

The main enemy of Taliban

The ruling Taliban in Afghanistan are maintaining ties with al-Qaeda as they consolidate control across the country. The Taliban’s main threats are the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) extremist group and guerrilla-style attacks carried out by remnants of the old regime, according to UN experts.

The report – intended for submission to the UN Security Council – assesses that neither IS nor al-Qaeda is capable of carrying out international terrorist attacks before 2023.

However, the report said the presence of IS, al-Qaeda, and “many other terrorist groups and fighters on Afghan soil” was raising concerns in neighboring countries and in the wider international community. than.

Since taking power in Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, the Taliban have tended to “prefer loyalty and age over competence, and their decision-making is often ambiguous and inconsistent.”

The group of experts specializes in monitoring sanctions against the Taliban. They claim that the Taliban leadership has appointed 41 people to the Cabinet and senior positions on the US sanctions blacklist. They favor the majority Pashtun ethnic group, pushing away minorities, including Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

The Taliban’s primary concern is consolidating control “while seeking international recognition, to re-engage with the international financial system, and to receive aid to address the humanitarian and economic crisis.” The economy is getting worse in Afghanistan.”

Since taking power, there have been many factors creating tension within the movement, leading to a perception that Taliban rule is chaotic, disconnected, and potentially dangerous, the group said. tendency to reverse policies and then break promises”.

As the Taliban transitioned from an insurgent force to a ruling force, they were split between pragmatists and hardliners, who had the upper hand and wanted to turn the clock back. with the Taliban’s draconian rule from 1996 to late 2001.

To date, the Taliban’s efforts to win recognition and aid from the West have been fruitless, mainly because they have not yet formed a more representative government. The Taliban also restricts girls’ right to go to school after primary school, as well as the right of women to work and go out without a male relative to take care of them.

The difficulty, experts say, is how a movement with a rigid ideology can interact with a society that has grown so much in the past 20 years. “There are also tensions around power, resources, regional and ethnic divisions.”

The Taliban continues to be isolated amid mounting difficulties

Despite these serious problems, the experts said that the Taliban “seems to be confident in their ability to control the country and “wait” for the international community to recognize their government.”

“The Taliban assess that if they don’t make further concessions, the international community will eventually recognize them as the Afghan government, especially in the absence of a government-in-exile or a substantial resistance movement.” .

To date, no country has officially recognized the Taliban, and international anger is growing at the Taliban’s poor treatment of women and girls and the fact that the group has not kept its promise to establish it. an inclusive government. There are also concerns about the Taliban’s inability to keep its promise to stop terrorist groups from operating in Afghanistan.

Experts say that the Haqqani Network, an Islamist militant group with close links to the Taliban, acted quickly and controlled key ministries in the Taliban government, including the interior ministry, intelligence department, passport and immigration department. The group now “controls much of the security in Afghanistan, including that of the capital, Kabul.”

According to experts, “The Haqqani network is still considered to have close links to al-Qaeda” and the relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda remains close. There is information about the presence of al-Qaeda’s “core leadership” in eastern Afghanistan, including leader Ayman al-Zawahri.

To combat IS, the report cites an (unidentified) country that claims the Taliban have created three special operations battalions called “red units”.

The rise of the National Resistance Front and the Afghan Freedom Front, which includes members of the armed and security forces of the former Afghan government, has “lead the Taliban to choose tougher solutions against ethnic groups.” support anti-Taliban activities.

In April, forces of the National Resistance Front stepped up their operations in the provinces of Badakhshan, Baghlan, Jowzjan, Kunduz, Panjshir, Takhar and Samangan.

The recently emerged Afghan Freedom Front “also claimed responsibility for a number of attacks on Taliban bases in Badakhshan, Kandahar, Parwan and Samangan”.

As a result, the Taliban can find themselves in a difficult position of being attacked by several insurgent movements at the same time.

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