Russia-Ukraine conflict: New red line, dangerous turning point?

In the Western media, analysts do not shy away from discussing the risk of a third world war or a nuclear war. This week, we see a new level of open confrontation between Russia and the West. There are more and more signs that Russia is confronting NATO not just with Ukraine. This is a dangerous turning point that the whole world is watching.

The West stepped up the supply of weapons to Ukraine

Efforts to transfer weapons to Ukraine are being rushed after Russia announced that it had entered the second phase of the special military campaign. President Joe Biden has proposed approving a new aid package worth 33 billion USD for Ukraine, of which 11.4 billion USD is for the purchase of military equipment. The US Congress also passed the World War II Lend-Lease aid program law, which allowed the US to lend or aid military equipment to allied countries in the shortest time.

US President Joe Biden said: “We are directing a significant flow of weapons and systems from US allies and partners around the world to Ukraine. That assistance is being carried out at an unprecedented rate. ever had”.

Currently, there are about 8-10 flights of weapons every day to NATO bases located near Ukraine, mainly Poland and Romania. Germany also provided Ukraine with heavy weapons for the first time.

Efforts to transfer weapons to Ukraine are being urgently implemented by Western countries

According to Ms. Liz Truss – British Foreign Secretary: “The distinction between defensive weapons aid and offensive weapons has become an excuse for some countries to hesitate. But that time is over, allies. NATO is supplying Ukraine with heavy weapons to deter Russia and regain territory.

The United States has also met with defense ministers of 40 allied countries to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities. The Pentagon says the United States wants to see Russia weakened and believes Ukraine can win the war with the right weapons. The West is also considering a long-term aid for Kiev.

Mr. Jens Stoltenberg – NATO Secretary General: “We need to prepare for the long term. The situation in Ukraine is very unpredictable and fragile, it is quite possible that this war will last for months or even years.” .

Russia has repeatedly criticized the supply of weapons to Ukraine by the United States and its allies as a dangerous act, and warned that any foreign weapons shipment entering Ukraine could become a legitimate target of Russian forces. Most recently, Russia attacked with a Kalibr missile from a naval ship in the Black Sea, destroying a military warehouse in Ukraine containing large weapons and ammunition aided by Western countries. Russia’s goal is to cut off Western arms aid to Ukraine.

Evgeny Buzhinskiy, President of the Center for Russian Political Studies, said: “All the weapons were transported into Ukraine from Poland, they were gathered in the western part of Ukraine and then transported by rail to the war zone. East school. This road should be cut off immediately.”

Aid weapons and destroy the aided arsenal, both Russia and the West are tit-for-tat, making the war in Ukraine more and more protracted.

Warning about the third world war

On both sides, Russia and the West are showing more resolute stance on the conflict in Ukraine. As Western countries pour new weapons into Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the danger is already serious and the threat of nuclear war is real.

Speaking on television on the 61st day of the special military operation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that a third world war was at risk and the West was going to war with Russia for sending weapons to Kiev. . The current situation in Ukraine is due to the fact that the US and its allies in NATO have pursued the dream of unipolarity and unlimited expansion towards Russian territory.

President Joe Biden: The US is directing a significant flow of weapons and systems from US allies and partners around the world to Ukraine

“I don’t want to artificially raise those risks. The danger is serious and real, we must not underestimate it. NATO, in fact, is engaged in a war with Russia through a The middle power and NATO are supplying the middle power with weapons. This means war,” said Sergey Lavrov.

How the US and Western countries evaluate Russia’s warning, that is what is of interest to observers at the moment. Will the US take those warnings lightly?

“Of course, when it comes to the possibility of nuclear escalation, we pay close attention to Russia’s activities, what they’re doing,” said State Department spokesman Ned Price.

To assess the likelihood of a nuclear war, past events can provide important data. The first is the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when the US deployed 15 medium-range Jupiter missiles in Turkey. These missiles are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, as well as easily hitting Russia. In response, the Soviet Union sent troops and intermediate-range missiles to Cuba. However, tensions eventually cooled down, Russia withdrew its troops and weapons, and the US abandoned its plan to invade Cuba and withdrew missiles from Turkey.

The United States has also met with defense ministers of 40 allied countries to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities.

The second time was in 1973, when the fourth Arab-Israeli war occurred. The Soviet Union’s intention to deploy troops to rescue Syria made the country almost fall into a nuclear confrontation with the US. The newly appointed US Secretary of State at the time, Henry Kissinger, began a program called “shuttle diplomacy”. The danger of nuclear war is extinguished.

Thus, for most of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union did their best to avoid confrontations that could lead to the risk of nuclear war. For now, observers worry that these lessons do not seem to apply to the current war in Ukraine. The US and the West are dealing with the situation with Russia in a tough and drastic way, not with a cold head like their predecessors.

Mr. Philips P. O’Brien – University of St Andrews, Scotland acknowledged: “US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin used the phrase ‘win the war’, ‘help Ukraine win the war’. shows the US commitment to Ukraine, helps Ukraine in much more advanced ways because they believe Ukraine can win the war, and that’s the difference.From thinking Ukraine can be defensive, using guerrilla war, they now believe that Ukraine can do a lot of damage to Russia and are forced to negotiate peace on Ukraine’s terms.”

US policy towards Ukraine is changing. There is little sign that the United States will show any concessions, even though Russia is warning of the prospect of a nuclear disaster.

Attacks also occurred in the land of Transnistria

“We have to worry about that, because some steps have crossed a red line, taboo since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, so it’s not possible,” said Florent Parmentier, from the Academy of Sciences-Po Paris, France. ignore that the claim of the threat of a third world war does not exist”.

According to defense experts, what happened before February 24 shows that, when Moscow is pushed to a red line, the Kremlin can take unforeseen actions. And that’s not good for Europe’s security.

The risk of war between Russia and Ukraine spreads

In the last days of April, attacks also occurred in the land of Transnistria, targeting military bases, headquarters of security agencies and telecommunications facilities. Transnistria is a breakaway territory from Moldova – a country that was once part of the former Soviet Union. The narrow strip of land between Ukraine and Moldova is home to 1,500 Russian troops. Currently, Moscow is supporting the economy of Transnistria, providing the territory with free gas.

Pro-Russian separatists in Transnistria accused Ukrainian forces of being behind the incident. While Kiev believes that these are staged attacks for Russia to have an excuse to replenish its troops in Transnistria, similar to what happened in the Donbass region before Moscow launched a military operation on February 24.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said: “The Russian military has been regularly stationed in the temporarily occupied territories of Moldova, namely in the Trans-Dniester for many years. We know that they are always ready to fight to defeat the enemy. waiting for orders”.

Maria Zakharova – Spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry said: “We are very concerned about the escalation of tensions in Transdniestria. We consider such actions as terrorism and aimed at destabilizing the situation in the region. We strongly condemn attempts to involve Transdniestria in what is happening in Ukraine.”

The following statements by the two sides are in the direction of the risk of widespread hostilities. Alexei Arestovich, an adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that if Moldova asks, the Ukrainian army is ready to occupy the Transnistria region. The TASS news agency quoted General Minnekayev of Russia as saying that, since entering a new phase of the special military operation, one of the tasks of the Russian military is to establish full control over the Donbass and Southern Ukraine. According to Minnekayev, once they control eastern and southern Ukraine, the Russian military will open the way to Transnistria in Moldova, where some Russian-speaking communities are being oppressed.

As for Moldova, President Maia Sandu clearly expressed concern about the situation in Transnistria. The Moldovan president also wants Russian troops stationed along Transnistria’s border with Moldova to be replaced by an observer mission from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe – a proposal Moscow rejects.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov: In fact, NATO is participating in the war with Russia through a mediating power

UN promotes efforts to end conflict

On April 26, the UN Secretary-General arrived in Moscow with the goal of calling on Russia to cease fire to evacuate civilians from war zones, especially in eastern and southern Ukraine. And he received a commitment from Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said: “We heard the Ukrainian authorities say there are civilians there, then the Ukrainian military should let the civilians leave.

Establishing humanitarian corridors and evacuating people from war zones were also discussed between the UN Secretary-General and the President of Ukraine when he arrived in Kiev. Mr. Guterres announced that the United Nations was making every effort to get the people trapped out of the steel factory area in the city of Mariupol, where the conflict is happening. “This war must end and peace must be established in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations and international law. I am here to tell the President and to the Ukrainian people that we will not give up.” .

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy: “I am confident that the Secretary-General and all of us will be able to have a successful outcome, for everyone to return alive.”

The visit to Russia and Ukraine is considered an opportunity for Secretary-General Guterres to regain the initiative of the United Nations in the Ukraine issue. Guterres also acknowledged that the UN Security Council had failed to prevent the conflict in Ukraine.

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