The latest “hot” forecast on the steel market

Material price today 5/6: China iron ore hits 6-week high

China’s iron ore prices rose for a fifth session in a row to their highest in more than six weeks as steel mills replenished inventories ahead of the holiday and ramped up production to gradually recover from the Covid-19-hit economy. 19.

At the end of the week, September iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed surging 3.8% to 936 yuan ($140.19) a tonne, the highest since January 19. 4.

However, iron ore price gains may be limited as steel output remains, while easing of regulations on the housing sector still does not solve the problem.

On the futures exchange in Dalian, coke futures rose 2.8% to 2,813 yuan a tonne and coking coal rose 3.4% to 3,669 yuan a tonne.

Steel prices in Shanghai closed also increased. Bar steel for October term stood at 4,788 yuan/ton, up 2% from the previous session. Hot rolled coil increased 1.8% to 4,879 yuan/ton, stainless steel increased 1% to 18,495 yuan/ton.

Recently, steel prices have continuously increased when the war between Russia and Ukraine is always in a state of tension and Russia is the 5th largest steel producer and exporter in the world. Factors from tight supply, along with supply chain disruptions due to epidemics and inflation in many countries around the world have weakened the outlook for the global steel industry in 2022.

The construction and real estate industries, which account for about 50% of steel consumption demand, are tending to slow down due to fears of an economic slowdown in the US and the effects of the blockade in China. This will put pressure on demand for steel as well as input materials for steel production such as iron ore or coke.

According to the latest data of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), world crude steel production of 64 countries reached 161 million tons in March, down 5.8% year on year.

China, the world’s largest steel producer, continued to record a decrease in output in March when it reached 88.3 million tons, down 10.5% compared to February 2021. Most of the countries with large crude steel production such as the US, Russia, Iran also decreased from 0.4% to 4.7%. Only India recorded an increase in crude steel production of 5.9% year-on-year to 10.9 million tons.

According to the Vietnam Steel Association (VSA), in April 2022, the world raw material price market reversed direction due to a sharp decrease in demand. The Chinese steel market saw a decrease in demand due to the Government’s policy towards the country in response to the Covid-19 epidemic wave.

In the recent Short-Term Outlook (SRO) report for 2022 and 2023 of the World Steel Association (Worldsteel), this organization forecast that world steel demand will increase by only 0.4% in 2022 to 1,840, 2 million tons after a 2.7% increase in 2021.

In 2021, the recovery from the pandemic shock turned out to be stronger than expected in many regions, despite continued supply chain problems and the Covid-19 wave. However, a sharper-than-expected deceleration in China led to growth steel demand lower globally in 2021.

Going to 2022 – 2023, experts say that the outlook and forecast given in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is uncertain. Expectations for a continued and steady recovery from the pandemic have been shaken by the war in Ukraine and rising inflation. Worldsteel’s forecast assumes that the confrontation in Ukraine will end in 2022 but sanctions against Russia will largely remain.

Domestic, steel price around the 17-18 million dong/ton mark

Regarding the domestic market, steel price is around 17-18 million VND/ton. Steel market recorded 4 consecutive declines since May 11. The reduction is from 1.1 million VND/ton to 1.7 million VND/ton.

Steel prices in the North: According to SteelOnline.vn, Hoa Phat steel brand adjusted its selling price. Specifically, CB240 steel coil decreased by 210 VND to 17,250 VND/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 reduced by 200 dong, priced at 17,810 dong/kg.

Similarly, Vietnam Italy steel, with CB240 coil, decreased by 350 VND to 17,220 VND/kg; rebar line D10 CB300 decreased by 200 dong to 17,730 dong/kg.

Viet Duc steel brand, 2 products of the company simultaneously decreased by 200 VND, with CB240 steel coil currently at 17,120 VND/kg; and D10 CB300 rebar is priced at 17,780 VND/kg.

As for VAS steel with a sharp decrease in selling price, 2 of its products, including CB240 coil, decreased by 200 dong, currently at 16,970 dong/kg; rebar line D10 CB300 reduced by 400 dong, priced at 17,070 dong/kg.

Vietnam Japan Steel with 2 steel lines of the company adjusted down. Currently CB240 steel coil is at 17,170 VND/kg; D10 CB300 rebar is priced at 17,370 VND/kg.

Viet Sing Steel, with CB240 coil, fell to 17,510 VND/kg; D10 CB300 rebar line is currently priced at 17,710 VND/kg.

Steel prices in the Central region: Hoa Phat Steel reduced selling price. CB240 coil line decreased by 410, currently at 17,200 VND/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 decreased by 200 to 17,710 VND/kg.

Viet Duc Steel, CB240 coil and D10 CB300 rebar all decreased by 200 dong, down to 17,370 and 17,780 dong/kg, respectively.

VAS steel fell deeply. Specifically, with 2 products of the company, including CB240 coil, decreased by 300 VND, to 17,270 VND/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 reduced by 200 dong, priced at 17,320 dong/kg.

Pomina Steel, with CB240 coil line down 210 dong, now at 18,060 dong/kg; and D10 CB300 rebar reduced by 300 dong, priced at 18,270 dong/kg.

Steel prices in the South: Hoa Phat Steel sharply reduced selling price. Specifically, with the CB240 coil line from 17,560 to 17,250 VND/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 is 200 dong, priced at 17,710 dong/kg.

Pomina Steel, with CB240 coil line down 200 dong, currently at 17,810 dong/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 reduced by 300 dong, priced at 18,220 dong/kg.

VAS steel with CB240 coil line decreased by 500 dong, currently at 16,970 dong/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 adjusted down 400 dong, priced at 17,070 dong/kg.

Tung Ho Steel, with CB240 coil line down 400 dong, priced at 17,260 dong/kg; Rebar D10 CB300 reduced by 400 dong, currently priced at 17,360 dong/kg.

Before that, many steel enterprises continued lower steel prices from June 1 and is the 4th consecutive decrease in 3 weeks.

Hoa Phat steel prices in the North decreased by 210,000 VND/ton and 300,000 VND/ton for CB240 and D10 CB300 steel, down to 17.25 million VND/ton and 17.81 million VND/ton. In the South, the two types above decreased by 200,000 VND/ton and 310,000 VND/ton respectively to 17.25 million VND/ton and 17.71 million VND/ton.

With the Vietnam-Italy steel brand, CB240 and D10 CB300 are respectively 200,000 VND/ton and 350,000 VND/ton down to 17.22 million VND/ton and 17.73 million VND/ton, respectively.

With Viet Duc in the North, CB240 and D10 CB300 were adjusted to VND 17.12 million/ton and VND 17.78 million/ton, respectively, down 200,000 VND/ton.

Kyoei Steel reduced by 200,000 VND/ton and 350,000 VND/ton for CB240 and D10 CB300. After the change, the price remained at 17.22 million VND/ton and 17.68 million VND/ton, respectively.

Viet Nhat lowered 200,000 VND/ton for both CB240 and CB300. After reducing, the price is 17.17 million VND/ton and 17.37 million VND/ton, respectively.

Southern steel also reduced 200,000 VND/ton for the above two types of steel. From June 1, the price of CB240 and CB300 is 17.66 million VND/ton and 18.07 million VND/ton.

Pomina Steel decreased by 210,000 VND/ton for CB240 and 300,000 VND/ton for CB300. After adjustment, the prices of the two types above remained at VND 18.06 million/ton and VND 18.27 million/ton.