According to data analytics company Airfinity, the world is likely to produce 9 billion doses of the Covid-19 vaccine by 2022, but next year demand will drop sharply to 2.2-4.4 billion doses.
Thus, the world faces the risk of an overabundance of the Covid-19 vaccine, after a period of racing to develop production. Airfinity predicts this trend will make sales of major pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, AstraZeneca become dismal after Covid-19. It also creates problems for vaccine-producing powers like India and Indonesia. Countries will have to grapple with oversupply.
Although many countries need a fourth dose of the vaccine, severe shortages from last year have been steadily decreasing. Oversupply of vaccines, especially in developing countries, tends to happen more often.
Countries have injected a total of 11 billion doses of the vaccine. Low-income countries have access to more and more vaccines to race against. After initially grappling with significant supply shortages last year, leaders of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) Covax initiative in January said stocks were exceeding demand. The challenge now lies in the distribution, reception and reluctance of vaccination in places like Africa.
Scott Rosenstein, healthcare advisor to the Eurasia Group, said: “Supply is outstripping demand in most parts of the world, even as many countries are ramping up injections. This situation will continue unless there’s been a really dangerous mutation.”
The demand for vaccines has decreased because people are aware that Omicron does not cause severe symptoms, the hospitalization rate is low. Vaccines are still effective at preventing death. The number of injections needed in the coming years is expected to decrease compared with the early days of the pandemic. Meanwhile, more and more manufacturers are entering the market.
“One of the big questions going forward is what to do with such a large capacity to produce vaccines, while demand is dwindling,” said Dr. Rosenstein.
Medical staff prepare a shot of the Covid-19 vaccine at a vaccination site in Lyon, France last month. Photo: AFP
According to Airfinity, AstraZeneca vaccine sales will decline in 2022, after hitting $4 billion last year. Pfizer’s vaccine revenue in 2021 is $ 36.8 billion, in 2022 is expected to be $ 32 billion.
Supply problems can become especially acute in countries with a developed vaccine industry like India. The country is struggling with domestic and global oversupply. Some experts question the need for a fourth dose of vaccines, saying their effectiveness in preventing infection declines rapidly after a few weeks.
Biological E, a major manufacturer based in Hyderabad, has invested around 15 billion rupees ($195 million) to double its vaccine capacity during the pandemic to around 4 million doses per day. Its vaccine, Corbevax, was licensed in December last year. However, as most adults in India have already received the standard two-dose vaccination, the government is reluctant to expand the booster program. Currently, authorities have only purchased 300 million doses of Corbevax, with no intention of buying more.
Biological E is not the only manufacturer facing this situation. A vaccine from pharmaceutical company Zydus Lifesciences was also approved last year. Chief executive officer Sharvil Patel said the government had just ordered 10 million doses.
Thuc Linh (According to Time of India)
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