Trump’s ‘poison pill’ threatens to revive Iran nuclear deal

Donald Trump has imposed more than 1,000 sanctions on Iran as president, but one of them could prove to be a “poison pill” to derail his successor’s attempt to revive the deal. 2015 nuclear is designed to prevent Iran from the making of the atomic bomb.

Trump pulled the US out of the deal in 2018 and blacklisted Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, an arm of the Iranian military, in 2019. There are currently talks to extend the nuclear deal. is at an impasse over sanctions, with Iran asking according to a current official and three sources familiar with the discussions, that the Biden administration lift the US terrorist designation.

Discussions between Iran and world powers are about to reach an agreement by the end of February but got bogged down after Russia raised new concerns and as Iranian officials push for the removal of the terrorist designation in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, the sources said.

Sources told NBC News the Biden administration offered to remove the designation in exchange for assurances from Iran not to retaliate against American officials over the killing of a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, who died. during a US drone strike in Baghdad. . Iran rejected the proposal and responded about two weeks ago with a counter-proposal, the details of which are still unclear.

The sources said the Biden administration has yet to officially respond to Iran’s proposed response.

“The ball is in Biden’s court,” a source said briefly of the discussions.

Administration officials are now debating how to proceed, knowing that removing the terrorist label will trigger a backlash in Congress and among Middle Eastern allies.

“There’s no doubt that this is a Trump trap for Biden,” said Ali Vaez, of the International Crisis Group, a think tank.

“The irony is that the current impasse was deliberately created in advance by the Trump administration to put their successor exactly where he is,” said Vaez, a strong supporter of the 2015 Iran deal. ,” said Vaez, a strong supporter of the 2015 Iran deal.

A senior Biden administration official suggested that resolving the deadlock was up to Iran.

“We will not negotiate in public. The president has made it clear that he will do what is in the best interest of the security of the United States – and the responsibility here really falls on Iran at this stage, especially on this issue. “

Iran’s UN mission did not respond to a request for comment.

The 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, imposed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the easing of economic sanctions, including relief. release blocked Iranian funds in foreign banks. In 2018, Trump pulled the US out of the JCPOA and re-imposed US sanctions while adding new ones.

Critics accuse the Trump administration of deliberately introducing “poison” sanctions that could make it difficult for the next president to restore the accord. But officials at the time said the sanctions were designed to hit Iran as part of a “maximum pressure” campaign to force Tehran to make more concessions and weaken the regime.

Richard Goldberg, who served on Trump’s White House national security council and is strongly opposed to reinstating the JCPOA, said the impetus to impose additional sanctions on the Revolutionary Guards and Other entities originally came from Congress, before the Trump administration pulled the US out of nuclear. face to face.

In 2015, when the administration of President Barack Obama made a request for the agreement, officials speak The United States will retain the authority to impose sanctions on Iran unrelated to its nuclear program, including targeting organizations accused of supporting terrorism. In 2017, lawmakers on both sides supported legislation that would introduce new sanctions on Iran and lay the groundwork for a US president to sanction the Revolutionary Guards. Former Obama administration officials at the time Debate opposed the act, warning that it could undermine the formula that underpins the 2015 nuclear deal.

“The broader issue here is that the Obama administration is adamant that nothing can stop the US from imposing sanctions,” said Goldberg, now a senior adviser to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. terrorism, missiles and human rights”. Congress decided to “test this proposal,” he said, and now the Biden administration is grappling with the aftermath.

After nearly a year of negotiations, Iran and the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China have mostly resolved the question of which sanctions will be lifted under the original deal – except that the IRGC blacklisted.

The US government accuses the Revolutionary Guards of killing hundreds of US troops in Iraq and providing weapons and training to proxies in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Over the past two decades, the United States has imposed a series of sanctions against the IRGC and individuals in the force related to its ballistic missile program and alleged terrorism and human rights violations. permission.

Most former officials and regional analysts think removing the IRGC’s terrorist designation will have little practical effect as the organization will remain subject to a myriad of other US sanctions.

But the move carries powerful political symbolism, for Iran, for the United States and for Iran’s enemies in the Middle East.

As for the possible domestic political backlash in the United States, the Biden administration conceded “they would be defeated” if the terror designation was lifted without conditions, a former US official said.

According to Matthew Leavitt of the Institute for Near East Policy Studies, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy Studies:

“America’s partners and allies in the region, especially the Gulf states and Israel, are extremely concerned that an extended nuclear deal will empower Iran at a time when the United States is believed to be retreating from the region,” Leavitt wrote recently.

According to Eric Brewer, a former senior US official and now senior director of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the de-designation is also an attempt by the Iranians to renegotiate the nuclear deal. in 2015, because the status of the Revolutionary Guards was not related to the agreement. a think tank.

The real issue is not the actual value of the terrorism designation but “the domestic political ramifications of its elimination, the negative signals it will send to Gulf partners.” when relations are already strained, and perhaps most importantly, doing so will drag us into territory beyond the scope of the original agreement,” Brewer said.

A current US official and two sources familiar with the matter said the administration is not ready to lift the terrorist designation if Iran does not offer something of equal value. Earlier, Iran had rejected a US proposal to hold talks on Iran’s missile program or its actions in the Middle East.

In Washington’s view, the status of the Revolutionary Guards is unrelated to the nuclear deal and would therefore require concessions from Iran on other issues.

A State Department spokesman said that if Iran wants to lift sanctions “beyond the JCPOA, it will need to address our concerns beyond the JCPOA.”

Asked this month if the Revolutionary Guards were a terrorist organization, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell: “They are.”

The debate over the designation of terrorism comes at the same time as growing concern about threats of retaliation from Iran over the US killing of Soleimani, the leader of the Revolutionary Guards Quds force. troops abroad.

On the second anniversary of Soleimani’s assassination, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Soleimani’s successor, General Esmail Ghaani, took the oath revenge against Trump and other former officials for targeting the Iranian general.

Iran also imposed “sanctions” on more than 50 Americans it said were involved in the killing of Soleimani, what it called an act of “terrorism”. The list includes former senior Trump administration officials and top military officers, including the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, and the former head of Central Command. United States, General Frank McKenzie.

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, responded with an anomaly declaresaid the United States would protect all Americans facing threats from Iran and warned Tehran that it would face “serious consequences” if it attacked any Americans.

The Biden administration has ordered 24-hour security for Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former secretary of state, and former Iran special envoy Brian Hook, due to what it sees as a credible threat to two former officials, who who helped shape Trump’s Iran policy. According to the US State Department, security details cost about $2 million a month.

In their annual threat assessment released last month, US intelligence agencies speak that Iran will continue to pose a threat to Americans, plot terrorist attacks, and that Tehran remains committed to building networks within the United States.

Proponents of reinstating the 2015 nuclear deal say it would be a grave mistake to blacklist the Revolutionary Guards from implementing an arms control agreement aimed at deterring Iran. develop a nuclear arsenal.

Senator Chris Murphy, D-Conn, said the consequences of letting the nuclear deal fall apart would be “catastrophic”.

“It would be political negligence if that was a key point,” Murphy said, referring to the designation of the guards ‘as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO).

“I understand Republicans will overstate the importance of the FTO designation. And we’re going to have to be prepared to explain to the American people what the stakes of not reaching a deal are and how insignificant that designation is in fact,” Murphy said.

For several months, the Biden administration has warned that time is running out to conclude the nuclear talks and that the United States is not ready to engage in discussions indefinitely.

Contrary to public comments by US officials about the risk of nuclear talks falling apart, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Tuesday said the nuclear talks “are going on. progressing well”.

According to Henry Rome, deputy head of research and Iran analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk analysis and consulting firm, Iran seems confident that it has a strong negotiating hand and it could make more concessions from the West.

“Their economy has stabilized significantly. They have a new president who is chasing a lot of tough wish lists. Their nuclear program continues to run ahead unabated.” Rome said. “So I think they’re pretty clear they’re not desperate at this point. And I think it’s likely that they’re trying to use that to their advantage to see what they can get, especially given the war in Europe and high energy prices.”

Despite US warnings that the talks are at a decisive stage or on hold, the government has given no warning that it will increase economic pressure on Iran if the talks fail or consider using military force if necessary to prevent Iran from buying bombs.

As a result, Iran doesn’t seem to feel pressure to make further compromises, said Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “They have no reason to believe we’re serious,” he said.

“The administration is preparing equally for situations with and without a return to each other to fully implement the JCPOA,” a State Department spokesperson said.

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