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Western intelligence believes that Russia can win in Ukraine on May 9

Russia-Ukraine war: Western intelligence believes that Russia can win in Ukraine on May 9 - Photo 1.

Tanks of Russian forces travel on a dirt road in Mariupol. Reuters photo.

Western officials warn that President Vladimir Putin “remains in a position to win” the war in Ukraine, despite making “strategic mistakes” in the opening phase of the campaign. special military.

Now that the Russian forces are showing signs of improvement in their organization and mobility, it is possible to declare some form of “victory” in the eastern Donbass before Victory Day on May 9 every year. in Russia, according to INews.

In addition, with little indication that a positive negotiation between Moscow and Kiev is imminent, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is predicted to be “prolonged” and could last until the end of the year, the parties said. official said.

Although outnumbering Ukrainian forces by a ratio of 3 to 1, the Russian military made operational mistakes during the opening phase of the military campaign in Ukraine. Their string of mistakes included marching hundreds of tanks on major highways, leaving them vulnerable to attack and slow to maneuver.

But in recent days, since the launch of the second phase of the war and the full focus on “liberating” the Donbass region, Russian forces seem to have been “smarter” in deploying artillery and machines. unmanned aerial vehicle. Their fighting ability has also improved, a Western official said.

“They’ve solved some of their problems, but they continue to use relatively long convoys on major roads, making them more vulnerable,” the official said.

However, the Western official also said that the Ukrainians continued to fight in a very smart and effective way.

“Although we see some improvement in the Russian military, they are not yet a force that has ‘molded’ while Ukrainian forces continue to fight in a very smart and very effective way.” , the official commented.

Another Western official, who declined to be named, said: “This is a new chapter of the campaign. President Putin has clearly failed to achieve the goals they initially set but still has the ability to win. “.

“We do not see any prospect of a quick fruition of peace talks. Therefore, we are now prepared to continue to support Ukraine during a protracted period of conflict, with probably for most of the rest of this year,” the official added.

The West planned to send more military and economic assistance to Kiev to prepare for that protracted conflict.

Western officials said it was “likely” that the conflict would end in “some form of negotiated settlement” but that it had to “respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity”.

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