‘Cut the fever’ of land, housing prices will cool down by the end of 2022?

This is a statement made by VNDirect Research in a recent report on the real estate industry. According to CBRE’s data, in the first quarter of this year, the supply of new apartments in Ho Chi Minh City decreased by 48% year-on-year (svck) to 884 units, the lowest quarterly level since 2013, leading to a decline in the supply of new apartments in HCMC. to the number of primary apartments sold in the quarter decreased by 53% svck to 1,247 units.

The average price of primary apartments increased by 7.7% svck in the first quarter of 2022, slowing down from 14.6% of svck in the first quarter of 2021 and 6.9% of svck in the fourth quarter of 2021.

As for the housing segment, the average secondary price in some areas decreased by about 5% svck in the first quarter of 2022. However, contrary to the general trend, the rest of the city is in the Northwest, land prices tend to increase sharply.

In Hanoi, the report said, the new supply of ready-built houses in the first quarter also decreased by 24.7% to 296 units. Consumption of primary apartments in the first quarter of 2022 increased 16% (svck) to 4,800 units, while new supply decreased by 20.3% svck to 3,525 units. The average price of primary apartments in the quarter increased impressively by 13.3% svck to USD 1,655/m2.

For the segment real estatesecondary prices of 12/15 districts in Hanoi recorded a sharp decrease, an average decrease of 7.7% qoq, but still increased by 5.7% svck.

“The real estate industry is facing many challenges that affect the industry’s outlook from rising interest rates affecting home buying decisions, rising material prices that may increase housing prices to tightening bank loans in the coming year. real estate sector and stricter supervision in the issuance of corporate bonds (DN)” – VNDirect Research said.

This unit also assessed that, in the context of tightening credit in the real estate sector and closely monitoring the issuance of corporate bonds, investors may face challenges in raising capital in the next few quarters.

“Therefore, sales activity will likely be accelerated while land fund expansion will slow down, which may help house prices cool down in the remaining quarters of 2022,” VNDirect Research forecast.

Commenting on the risks of the industry, VNDirect Research raised the issue that housing prices continue to increase rapidly, especially in suburban areas, which raises concerns and may exceed the ability of homebuyers.

Along with that, construction costs increase in the second quarter of 2022, especially steel prices have increased by more than 20%, this will lead to an increase in house prices if material prices remain at the current high level in the next two years. . Inflation and home loan interest rate A higher-than-expected increase may cause negative impacts on apartment transactions, especially in the mid-end and affordable segments.

Regarding policy, this unit believes that the revised Land Law 2013 has been delayed to submit to the 4th National Assembly (previously scheduled to be submitted in May 2022). However, pending amendment, the Government is drafting a Decree amending and supplementing 6 Decrees guiding the implementation of the Land Law.

“This new decree together with Decree 148 issued in 2020, Circular 09 issued in 2021 are expected to solve the bottlenecks in the approval of residential projects and shorten the licensing time. The market may be active again after a long period of gloom and difficulty,” – VNDirect Research assessed.

A series of localities asked the police to investigate “inflating the price” of land

The fact is that the real estate market over the past time despite the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, housing prices in most segments in the localities have continuously increased, there are areas where there are still problems. the phenomenon of “hot” increase.

In the face of land fever in recent years, many localities have asked the police to intervene to clarify the tricks of “inflating the price” of land.

At the regular press conference of the first quarter of 2022 of the People’s Committee of Da Nang City on the afternoon of April 18, To Van Hung, Director of the Department of Natural Resources and Environment of Da Nang City, said that the Department had sent a document to the city police to propose investigated whether or not there is a collusion line between land “storks”, agencies and state management officials to change the land use purpose, creating a “fever” for land in Hoa Vang district.

Previously, Vice Chairman of Vinh Phuc Provincial People’s Committee signed Directive No. 10 on strengthening the management of real estate business in Vinh Phuc province, which directed a series of relevant authorities to strengthen the inspect, examine and handle violations.

In particular, direct Vinh Phuc Provincial Police to strengthen inspection and handling according to regulations. Provincial police organize to monitor areas with signs of sudden increase in land prices, status change of purpose, transfer of land use rights, “virtual fever”; investigating subjects with speculative behavior,”price blowing“, making the market create a virtual “land fever” to make a profit.

Before the real estate fever in Gia Lai, the provincial authorities have asked the police to strengthen the investigation and clarify the signs and behavior of pushing prices, blowing up land prices to gain illicit profits, causing problems. real estate market disturbances if any…

Thanh Son

Adversity in land trading: The fever skyrocketed, burning hands, big profits but no moneyAccording to the Ministry of Construction, in the first three months of this year, the average real estate transaction price in the whole market was in an uptrend, even some types increased quite high compared to the previous month.