Russia seems to have abandoned its original ambition in its military campaign in Ukraine to control Kiev, but may still have other goals.
In late March, the Russian military announced the withdrawal of most of its forces from the suburbs of Kiev and towns and villages in northern Ukraine, in order to focus on the goal of “liberating” the Donbass region in the east.
Observers believe that Russia is most likely aiming for 5 goals in the “Plan B” of the campaign in Ukrainewhen their initial tactics failed after nearly a month and a half of fighting.
Win a symbolic win
According to experts, President Vladimir Putin perhaps would love to announce some of the successes of its military campaign on May 9, when Russia celebrates its victory over Nazi Germany in World War II.
“President Putin is always interested in symbolic dates and historic landmarks, so he desperately needs a victory before May 9,,” said Alexander Grinberg, an analyst at the Jerusalem Institute for Security and Policy. (JISS), comments.
A convoy of tanks moves on the Mariupol-Donetsk highway in Ukraine on March 23. Photo: Reuters.
Sergei Karaganov, honorary chairman of the Moscow Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and a former Kremlin adviser, said Russia “cannot accept defeat”. “So we need some form of victory,” he said.
Control Mariupol
While there are signs that Russian forces are moving away from Kiev and other areas to the north, Moscow has not made any such moves around the city of Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine, which is already besieged. over the past several weeks.
Taking control of Mariupol would be an important step for Russia to realize its goal of establishing a land corridor connecting the Crimean peninsula with the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
“I believe that the intense fighting will continue until the Ukrainian forces withdraw from Mariupol,” predicted Grinberg.
The Donbass region north of Mariupol contains two pro-Russian separatist regions, Donetsk and Lugansk, so controlling this city would give Moscow control of a large swath of eastern Ukraine.
From Mariupol, Russian forces could “advance north to gain control of the rest of the Donbas, while continuing to control southern Ukraine and the coastal region of Azov,” said Pierre Razoux, a scholar from the Foundation Mediterranean Strategic Studies.
Control more territory
The self-proclaimed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, which Russia recognized as independent in February, are not yet able to control the full extent of the two self-proclaimed territories in Ukraine.
Moscow insists that the separatist government should have full control and control over the eastern region, so this seems to be an important goal of the military campaign in the new phase.
“The conflict is far from over, and Russia can still turn the tide if its forces have a successful campaign in eastern Ukraine,” said analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington, DC. Washington, USA, comments.
“If a ceasefire is put in place on the principle of ‘who is there,’ Russia could control some new territory in Ukraine,” said Ivan U Klyszcz, a researcher on international relations at the University of School of Tartu, Estonia, said.
Prolonged
The military campaign in Ukraine is said to have caused Russia to suffer both human and material losses.
“But the conflict is not over and new attacks will follow,” said Gustav Gressel, a senior policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), adding that the soldiers were professional. is a “critical resource” that Moscow is lacking.
Therefore, Russia may find ways to prolong the fighting to have enough time to recruit and train new military forces to supplement those units that have suffered damage.
But experts note that the protracted conflict will present more risks for Russia, as Ukraine’s military is showing it is quite successful with its resistance strategy.
“If the current conflict eventually turns into a protracted war of attrition, Ukraine is likely to be in a better position,” said Michael Kofman, director of the Russian Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses. .
Divide the West
If the conflict drags on, the Kremlin is expected to seek to divide the West, between those who want to take a hard line against Moscow and those who are more conciliatory.
President Putin on April 4 congratulated one of his closest allies in the European Union (EU), Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, after he won a fourth term.
Signs of a rift in the West have surfaced, with US President Joe Biden saying Mr Putin “shouldn’t stay in power”, while French President Emmanuel Macron dismissed such statements as useless. .
Macron said on April 4 that the EU should consider imposing more sanctions on Russia’s oil and coal industries, but did not mention natural gas, which Europe is deeply dependent on.
“The main goal of the Russian campaign remains to divide opinion in the West,” Razoux stressed.
Vu Hoang (According to AFP)
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