At the last online meeting, the OPEC+ group, including members of the Organization of oil export (OPEC) and 10 other oil exporting countries in the world, decided to increase for July and August to the daily oil production and export level for the whole group.
Specifically, increased from 432 barrels daily to 648 barrels. Thus, the group decided to increase the daily level of oil production and exports more quickly than planned at the previous meeting at the end of last year. If according to that plan, the increase of this level will not be decided until September at the earliest.
OPEC+ justified the above new decision by saying that the oil consumption demand of economies and people in all parts of the world increased sharply after the epidemic was clearly repelled in the world. most countries and regions in the world.
This increase in oil consumption demand is reflected in the recovery of growth in the world economy in general and in high fuel prices in other parts of the world. The war in Ukraine between Russia and Ukraine also has an impact on oil prices on the world market.
The EU’s latest decision to impose an embargo on Russia’s oil exports to the EU market – in the immediate future for Russian oil transported by sea exported to the EU – also contributed to promoting the development trend. of oil prices on the world market.
Russia is one of the three largest oil exporters in the world and a member of the OPEC+ group. At the end of May and beginning of June, the price of oil rose to 123 USD/barrel, the highest level since two years.
In the days before OPEC+ conducted the aforementioned online exchange, there were certain rumors about the intention of one member or another of the group to exclude Russia from the group so that it could increase oil exports. gain more and possibly also to win the US by making it more difficult for Russia. However, this was not discussed at the meeting.
OPEC+ acts quickly and reacts flexibly to new developments in politics, security, economy and oil prices in the world. But the increase in the volume of oil extracted and exported every day is only low, not high, and the time to implement the increase is limited. Thereby, it can be seen that OPEC+ is very cautious and makes gradual changes, not sudden changes.
It is possible that OPEC+’s philosophy of action in the current situation is “If it is not certain of success, then it must be certain not to fail” with the daily release of more oil to the world market.
Here is a subtle scheme of Saudi Arabia – the kingdom that exports the most oil in the world and plays a leading role in OPEC as well as OPEC +, is to enlist the US in the context of the situation US President Joe Biden is considering. visit Saudi Arabia on the upcoming foreign trip.
Mr. Biden has repeatedly urged Saudi Arabia to increase the amount of oil it produces and exports daily to help reduce oil prices on the world market – also to help the US reduce difficulties – and at the same time to make it more difficult for Russia to get involved. to the war in Ukraine.
OPEC+ did not decide to exclude Russia from the group because without Russia’s participation, OPEC+ will disband. If OPEC+ is disbanded, it will be difficult for OPEC to maintain the role and influence it still has in the world.
In today’s modern world, Russia is an oil power that OPEC must cooperate with, not defy, let alone resist, if OPEC wants to still have a decisive role and influence in the oil field. .
Therefore, no matter how long the war in Ukraine persists and then eventually ends, OPEC+ cannot and dare not exclude Russia from the group.