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Ukraine is the reason why Russia let Turkey rule in northern Syria

Ukraine is the reason why Russia let Turkey dominate in northern Syria - Photo 1.

If we look at the plans of the Turkish Armed Forces and the Syrian National Army (linked with Turkey), we are talking about a 30 km long security zone along the northern border. Most of the area is already controlled by President Assad’s government forces and by the Russians. And now the Turkish forces plan to capture Tell Rifaat and Manbij – the cities on the right bank of the Euphrates River. These cities are controlled by the Kurds and a handful of units of the Syrian army.

Back in 2019, Turkey planned to do so. But due to the circumstances at that time, Ankara was unable to complete and capture only part of the territory it claimed in the north.

Currently, Turkey only started special operations after the Russians withdrew from the area to focus resources on Ukraine.

Before that, the Russians and Turks had reached an agreement on joint control over the northern lands of Syria. Apparently, the agreement is no longer active, so the Turks feel they have been liberated from the constraints of the agreement.

Most military experts and observers assume that the Russians will not do anything to help their Syrian ally in this situation, while at the very least, the Syrians are trying to send more of their troops. to these areas. Whether the Syrians are ready to oppose Turkey is also a mystery.

This is one of the reasons why President Erdogan opposes Finland and Sweden’s aspirations to join NATO.

At one point in 2019, Finland and Sweden imposed sanctions against Turkey following their attack on Syria.

At the moment, Turkey has an opportunity, thanks to the conflict of Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s strong resistance to Russian military actions has created difficult situations for Russia.

A year ago, it was hard to imagine a new Turkish offensive in Syria. At that time, everything seemed to have come to an impasse, although the motive of the Turkish forces was always to completely change the ethnic composition of northern Syria.

Their main goal is to populate the 30km area they are controlling with Syrian refugees living in Turkey and thus to create a secure zone. This would allow them to break up permanent Kurdish settlements (including Kurds from Syria and Kurds from Turkey).

A year ago, these plans would have been virtually impossible. But now, as the Russians need all their resources in Ukraine (it is unconfirmed that the Syrians are currently fighting in Severodonetsk), it is clear that the Turks have had a chance to execute their plan. long cherished plan.

Furthermore, there seems to be a clear agreement between Turkey and Russia regarding the operation in Syria that the Russians will not interfere. In return, Turkey must guarantee its conditional neutrality.

Now, the Turks will take every opportunity to strengthen their position. Ankara is also trying to mediate and use Turkey as a venue for negotiations on the Ukrainian grain issue. So Turkey is actively using it to their advantage and the fact is that Russia, at least in this situation, needs Turkey.

Now Russia will find ways to prevent the rise of the anti-Russian front. And in this case, such Turkish maneuvers are seen by Moscow as a hope that this can be achieved.

“The Turks will negotiate until the last moment, no matter what. This is a country that likes to negotiate and haggle for better positions. Things don’t always go smoothly, It is possible to “break the burden”. But in this case, the Turks were lucky – the situation is in their favor”, The New Voice of Ukraine commented.

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