French election: Will Ukraine help President Macron get re-elected?

The race is tight

French voters can vote from 8 am (local time) until 7 pm and even 8 pm at about 70,000 polling places nationwide.

The President of France is elected for a five-year term by direct universal suffrage. About 49 million voters can vote. Voting took place in two rounds, the first round was held on April 10, the second round on April 24. Traditionally, voting is not limited to one round, in the second round, the two candidates who have passed the first round will compete against each other.

In the first round of elections, 12 politicians competed for the highest state position, including incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron, leader of the far-right Democratic Party of National Unity Marine Le Pen, candidate from the Communist Party. center-right republican Valérie Pécresse and far-right candidate Eric Zemmour, founder of the Reconquest party, leader of the left-wing France Unyielding Party Jean-Luc Melenchon, Communist Party candidate Fabien Roussel, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, candidate from the Socialist party, a member of the party Europe – Eco – Green Yannick Jadot and others.

As the poll results announced before the first round, the advantage is in favor of candidate Macron with a narrow gap before candidate Le Pen.

According to an Elabe survey as of April 8, Macron could get 26% in the first round and Le Pen at 25%. The gap in the second round between Mr. Macron and Ms. Le Pen also narrowed: the incumbent French president could get 51%, and the leader of the National Unity party could get 49%.

The advantage of President Macron

According to Mr. François Asselineau – French presidential candidate in the 2017 election – regular exchanges with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the context of Russia opening a special campaign in Ukraine that could bring more votes to French President Emmanuel Macron.

“Candidate Emmanuel Macron is very fortunate in the difficult times we live in today: The French presidential election coincides with France’s six-month term as European Union President. Mr. Macron in the image of many French people today is temporarily “the President of Europe” – Sputnik quoted Mr. Asselineau as saying.

At the same time, Asselineau noted, President Macron got this unexpected position because of the Ukrainian events.

“Mr Macron calls President Putin every few days and wants to impress the French people that he is so busy with the geopolitical tasks of the mediator that he has no time for a war campaign. nominate” – this expert added.

two Presidents of Russia and France have been in regular contact in recent months to discuss issues related to conflict resolution in Ukraine.

Before the start of his election campaign, Mr. Macron had vowed not to engage in debate with his opponents, although this made him the object of their criticism.

Asselineau said the situation angered Mr. Macron’s opponents, but there was little they could do: It was certainly thanks to that that Mr. Macron was able to win enough votes to win re-election.

“The only chance for his opponent in the second round, likely Marine Le Pen, is that there are too many voters supporting him who subjectively view the election result as a sure thing that might not bother him. interested in going to the polls,” the source said.

Another point not in favor of Mr. Macron is the scandal related to his relationship with the US consulting firm McKinsey, specifically the firm that advises the French government on the vaccination campaign, but this company. Haven’t paid a penny of tax in France for the past 10 years.

Observers are concerned that a record high voter abstention rate after a campaign season has been plagued by two topics: Ukraine War and the COVID-19 epidemic overwhelmed many other concerns of the French people.

AFP quoted political scientist Pascal Perrineau as highlighting two typical features in this French presidential election. One is that the percentage of voters who hesitated has never been as high as this year. Nearly 50% said they were still hesitant between the 12 candidates in the first round, and still left open the possibility of changing their mind at the last minute. The second is the non-voting rate. In 2002, 28.7% of French voters ignored the presidential re-election vote.

Observers do not rule out the possibility that the record 20 years ago can be surpassed, due to topics the French are really interested in, such as the expensive life, retirement age or wages of the working class. salary… is rarely mentioned in the context of the news focusing on the war in Ukraine at the gateway Europeand the prolonged COVID-19 health crisis.