The ‘life and death’ battle in Donbass: Does Russia have a chance to win in Eastern Ukraine?

Fierce battles with thousands of tanks, planes and armored vehicles

Experts say that a decisive battle may happen in the near future in Donbass as Russia is trying to mobilize more units that have never participated in the Ukrainian war to the region as well as to reposition units. just pulled out of the battles in the north of the country.

Satellite images and Western intelligence briefings show that Russian forces are assembling for a new assault on the Donbass, while continuing to tighten the siege on the strategically important city of Mariupol strategically in the southeast, leaving the remaining Ukrainian defenders here in dire straits.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba recently announced on NBC News that: “Ukraine has won the battle for Kiev. Now another battle is coming: The Battle of Donbass.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Kuleba has warned that the battle in Donbass could be very different from the fierce street fighting around Kiev and could closely resemble World War II when fighting broke out. across the fields and plains, with thousands of tanks, planes and armored vehicles involved. Ukraine also expressed a desire for Western allies to add weapons to deal with Russia.

The Donbass borders Russia to the north and east and is the industrial center of Ukraine – the region’s name is taken from the “Donets Coal Pool” – and ethnic Russians make up about 39% of the population, according to the census. 2001 of Ukraine.

Some commentators believe that President Putin is determined to take over southern and eastern Ukraine as a way to force Kiev to make concessions in peace negotiations, or gain control of the arms industry and blocking its access to the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov.

Can Russia win the “decisive battle in the Donbass?

Last month, Russia announced that it would end its nationwide offensive in Ukraine to focus on the east of the country – to “liberate” Russian-speaking people – one of the original reasons when Russia launched its “operation”. special military action” into Ukraine.

General Alexander Dvornikov, a prominent military leader who once commanded Russian forces in Syria, has been appointed to lead the new Russian offensive in Eastern Ukraine.

According to experts, after struggling in the early stages of the war, Russia may not be able to capture eastern Ukraine easily and quickly.

Keir Giles, defense analyst at Chatham House, said that Russia’s appointment of General Dvornikov shows that it is determined to adjust its strategy to conquer Ukraine’s eastern provinces. Russia has outlined a clearer, more achievable goal than trying to gain control of all of Ukraine.

“This means that Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine that have been surrounded and overwhelmed since the beginning of the war are now at an even greater risk of falling,” Giles said.

“A decisive battle is possible in the near future,” Giles added, as Russia dispatches units that have never been involved in hostilities as well as those that have just withdrawn from battles further north. Ukraine to Donbass.

Russian forces have now slowly pushed back the Ukrainian army in some areas and gained control of about 90% of the territory of the Luhansk region, said Nick Reynolds, a ground operations analyst at the RUSI think tank. in London said.

The Ukrainian army is more firmly organized in Donetsk, which together with Luhansk forms the Donbass region.

While some analysts think Russia can win in the Donbass, Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan, a consulting firm based in Poland, said: “The outcome of the battle could be. Both sides would be so battered that neither side could launch an attack or counterattack. The Ukrainians will fight to the last man to defend their territory.”