The war in Ukraine turns to a new page

“We need to prepare for the long term,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said so at the summit in Brussels (Belgium) this week. “It is quite possible that this war will last for months or years,” he added. Within the last few days, this view has emerged in Washington, Europe, Kyiv and Moscow.

A resident stands by the rubble in Mariupol Reuters

New strategy, new front

The visit by Defense Minister Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Kyiv on April 24 has set the stage for the West to “sink deeper” into the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “We want to see Russia weakened to the point where it can’t do what it did,” Austin told reporters in Poland after wrapping up a visit to Kyiv.

With this statement, the US administration more clearly demonstrates the strategic shift in Ukraine, predicts a long-term competition for power and influence with Russia. In fact, Washington’s diversion has taken place over the past few weeks with efforts to send heavy weapons to Kyiv despite what Moscow may perceive as an act of war.

Danger of war in Ukraine Turning into a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO is something that the US and its allies repeatedly insist they want to avoid. But the boundaries seem to be fading. While Stoltenberg warned that hostilities could drag on for years, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss urged NATO allies to “rummage through their arsenals” to bolster Kyiv with the most powerful weapons.

In Moscow, officials also raised the prospect of a widening conflict with the West. If Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declares that “NATO has entered war with Russia by proxy”, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned the West “not to test our patience”.

Russia’s suspension of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria from April 27, a move the EU immediately called “blackmail”, opened a new front in the war. That is the energy sector. The effects of this battlefield could send Europe into recession, but the EU is likely to pass an embargo on Russian oil and gas next week.

In addition, the President of the United States Joe Biden recently asked the National Assembly to approve an additional 33 billion USD to support Ukraine in the coming months. Combined with previous emergency assistance, the total could reach $46.6 billion. Last year, the Pentagon estimated the total amount of money the US has poured into its own war in Afghanistan (2001-2020) at $816 billion, or about $40.8 billion a year, according to the report. The New York Times.

Nuclear threat, icy diplomacy

The danger of hostilities spreading beyond Ukraine was illustrated for the first time this week with mysterious attacks in Transnistria, the breakaway Moldova region bordering Ukraine. Ukraine border. This is one of the potential areas of instability in Europe, with the presence of Russian forces since the early 1990s.

A Ukrainian soldier practices shooting

Along with that, threats of nuclear war, ie World War 3, also appeared more. In an interview on April 25, Lavrov responded to the US side’s claim of “weakening Russia” by warning that the risk of war between nuclear powers was “real and we must not take it lightly” “.

Then, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said Russia should not make such extreme statements, and the fact that a senior official of a nuclear power makes threats related to weapons. This is “totally irresponsible”.

In a related development, after several times talking about Russia’s nuclear capabilities in the early stages of the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin recently warned that Moscow will react “lightningly fast” if other countries intervene in Ukraine. “We have all the tools for this – tools that no one can brag about. And we won’t brag. We’ll use them if needed,” he told lawmakers in St.Petersburg.

However, a US defense official said on April 29 that Washington did not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons. Although the danger of nuclear war may be remote, the immediate reality is that diplomatic efforts have yet to bear fruit. The biggest hope this week is UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ trip to both Moscow and Kyiv. But as soon as Guterres was in Kyiv, the city was hit by missile strikes by Russian forces.

“War will not end with meetings. The war will end when Russia decides to end it and when a serious political agreement is reached. We can meet and meet, but that’s not what will end the war,” Guterres told CNN.