Overview of Finland applying to join NATO and Russia’s response

May 12, President Finland Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in a joint statement that Finland should apply to join NATO immediately. According to Sky News, this statement signals that Finland may submit a formal application in the next few days.

This is another major development in Europe after Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine, forcing nations around the world to rethink their alliances.

Impact

Finland has maintained a neutral position since the end of World War II. The defeat to the Soviet Union in the 1939-1940 war resulted in Finland having to cede 10% of its territory to the Soviet Union.

Although joining the European Union (EU) in 1995, but Finland has remained militarily independent since then, aware of the risk of perceived resistance to the Soviet Union and later Russia.

But since Russia launched a military campaign in Ukraine, Finland is among the countries forced to rethink its relationship with Moscow. These countries are no longer certain that non-alignment is the safest approach.

If it becomes the 31st country in NATO, Finland hopes to benefit from the “one for all, all for one” pledge, which requires all members to provide assistance to any affected country. attack.

Why does Finland want to join NATO?

The Finnish Parliament’s Defense Committee on May 10 said that joining NATO is the best option for Finland to ensure its national security.

Joining NATO will significantly increase deterrence against Finland becoming a target of Russian aggression, the Defense Committee concluded in the statement.

President Niinisto and Prime Minister Marin seemed to agree when they jointly announced on May 12: “Finland must apply to join NATO immediately.”

Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer border with neighboring Russia, is particularly vulnerable because it is difficult to defend against an attack from the east.

What does joining NATO mean?

Joining NATO would be an earthquake for the Nordic nation, shaking the long-held belief that staying out of the military alliance is the best way to avoid trouble with its giant neighbour.

More notably, however, the decision comes at a time when a longer neutral country, Sweden, is also considering joining NATO.

If Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia will find itself completely surrounded by NATO countries in the Baltic Sea and the Arctic.

Given Russia’s use of fear that Ukraine would join NATO as part of a military campaign rationale and President Vladimir Putin’s frequent warnings about NATO’s expansion eastward, Russia will not be pleased. Looks like Finland and Sweden joined NATO.

Will there be any consequences?

The Kremlin has warned of “military and political consequences” if Finland and Switzerland decided to join NATO.

President Vladimir Putin in his speech on the day of the launch of the military operation in Ukraine, said: “The military presence in the territories bordering Russia, if we allow it to continue, will … poses a growing and completely unacceptable threat to Russia.

However, analysts say that military action against the Nordic countries seems unlikely, given the level of involvement of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Heli Hautala, a Finnish diplomat and research fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, said that many Russian troops stationed near the Finnish border were sent to Ukraine and suffered “significant losses.” “.

She predicts that it is likely that Moscow will move weapons systems closer to Finland, cyber attacks, economic countermeasures and migration directions towards the Russian-Finnish border, similar to what happened. on the Polish border with Belarus last year.

Are Finns worried?

After staunchly opposing NATO membership for decades, public opinion in Finland has changed dramatically this year. Polls show that more than 75% of Finns currently support joining NATO.

As Russia’s military power declined in the 1990s, Finland was on high alert, but there was growing recognition that Russia’s military use of Ukraine could endanger Finland in the future. future.

Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said the scenes were unfolding in Ukraine led the Finns to draw the conclusion that “this can happen to us”.

Meaning for NATO

Analysts say that Finland has a modern, capable armed force that will significantly boost NATO’s capabilities in Northern Europe. Finnish forces often train with NATO troops, so can work together effectively.

Of course, the increase in membership means that NATO will have to increase the ability to protect the new member, because Article 5 of the NATO Treaty provides for an armed attack against one or more NATO members in Europe. or North America would be seen as an attack on NATO as a whole and would be met with a response from its members, including the use of force.

What happens next?

On May 14, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democratic Party, the largest group in parliament, is expected to set its stance on NATO membership. Members of Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democratic Party are said to be able to act similarly a day later.

On May 17, 2022, President Niinisto and the Finnish delegation will meet King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden and the Swedish delegation to discuss common concerns.

While support for Finland’s accession was strong, Sweden’s was less clear, with only 50% of the population supporting it, and some politicians persisting in their neutral stance. over 200 years of Sweden.

If governments in both countries decide to join NATO, governments will need to go through the legislative process in each country, with debates and votes by MPs.

Neither Finland nor Sweden plan to hold the referendums, fearing they could become the target of Russian interference.

If the national parliaments approve the application, NATO will issue a formal invitation to join. An invitation could be issued at the end of June when NATO leaders meet in Madrid for the alliance’s next conference.

Both Sweden and Finland have sought – and received – the Guaranteed support from the US and other NATO members, but all member states will need to approve their accession, with some requiring a parliamentary vote.

This entire process is expected to take up to 1 year.