Stock commentary for the week from April 11 to 15: Be careful with high-risk stocks

Accordingly, the uptrend of the market is said to be weakening and may continue to correct down. Therefore, analysts advise investors to be careful with high-risk stocks.

Consider adjusted price for disbursement

Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VDSC) said that last week, due to the lack of demand at the support point, the market fell deeply and returned to a struggling area below the threshold of 1,500 points.

The cash flow on this return still has not shown any positive signal, as only the average liquidity made the index close at the lowest price of the session. This shows that selling pressure is still overwhelming and this price is not really attractive to investors. With this cautious signal, the market is likely to drop and continue to retreat to the lower support lines to test the “will” of the support cash flow before rising again.

VDSC expects the downtrend will stop when VN-Index returns to the range of 1,455-1,465 points. The level of retracement will be lower for VN30 when the close support is at 1,515 points. Therefore, investors should slow down and may consider adjusting prices to disburse in some stocks with positive accumulation background and attracting cash flow. However, still should be careful with stocks with high risk nature.

Vietnam Foreign Trade Bank Securities Company Limited (VCBS) said that the bottom-fishing demand in the past week was still there, but it was not enough to make the VN-Index go against the general trend in the world. In the next week, this securities company expects cash flow will return to the group of large-cap stocks – which had a rather deep discount after last week.

With such developments, short-term investors can disburse with a small proportion of “pillar” stocks leading the market, while medium and long-term investors should still wait. when the market price level is more stable, then consider disbursing, VCBS recommends.

According to Saigon – Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS), after three consecutive gaining weeks, the market finally corrected again in the past week. VN-Index failed before the resistance level of 1,530 points in the first session of the week.

Followed by a series of negative news appearing on the market, investor sentiment quickly weakened, leading to a sharp increase in selling pressure, especially in the last two sessions of the week, causing the market to correct quite a bit. strong.

From a technical perspective, VN-Index has lost the psychological support level of 1,500 points and the technical support level of 1,490 points, causing the uptrend to be weakened. Therefore, in the next trading week (April 11-15), VN-Index may continue to correct to the support zone in the range of 1,425-1,450 points to find bottom-fishing demand.

In a positive scenario, if the demand in the support zone of 1,425-1,450 points is good enough, the market might soon recover again. Investors who bought in when the market tested the support zone of 1,425-1,450 points in the session of March 14 and March 15, can continue to hold the current portfolio and consider increasing the weight if the market does. adjust to the above support zone.

Regarding market movements last week, at the end of the trading week from April 4-8, VN-Index stood at VND 1,482 billion, equivalent to a decrease of 34.44 points compared to the previous week. HNX-Index also dropped 22.08 points to 432.02 points. UPCoM-Index fell 1.38 points to 115.81 points.

Matching liquidity declined compared to the previous session and continued to be below the 20-week average, showing that investors are still quite “conservative” at the current price range of the market.

Foreign investors traded in a negative direction and had an impact when net selling was over 38.7 million shares, equivalent to a net selling value of 997 billion dong.

Almost all stock sectors went down in the past week. The industrial group dropped the most with 5.3% of market capitalization, due to the decline of some pillars such as: SCG down 2.2%, CTR down 2.9%, BMP down 5.4%, GEX down 13.4%…

Followed by consumer services with a decrease of 3.2% in capitalization, with retail codes such as: FRT down 3%, MWG down 3.8%, DGW down 6.7%…

Consumer goods also fell 2.6%, with SAB down 0.7%, BHN down 2%, VNM down 5.4%), SAB… Financial stocks fell 2.7% in capital value due to the fact that real estate, securities, and insurance stocks were all sold and dropped sharply in the past week.

The market’s mainstay, the bank, also dropped 2% in capitalization, putting more pressure on the indexes. Specifically, STb down 0.3%, TCB down 2.9%, CTG down 3%, STB down 3.7%, BID down 5.5%, SHB down 9.5%… Materials stocks decreased by 1.5% in value when steel and chemical codes simultaneously adjusted.

The information technology industry decreased by 2.3% and the community utilities decreased slightly by 0.2%. In the opposite direction, only oil and gas group increased slightly by 0.2%.

In fact, Vietnam’s stock market dropped sharply in the context that the world’s leading stock market, the US, also performed quite negatively in the past week.

Discussing Fed policy dominates market sentiment

US stocks were mixed in the trading session on April 8, as investors continued to be affected by the plan to raise interest rates and cut the balance sheet of the US Federal Reserve (FED).

Closing this session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to 34,721.12 points. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 composite index lost 0.3% to 4,488.28 points, while the Nasdaq Composite technology index lost 1.3% to 13,711 points.

For the week as a whole, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.9%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes ended three consecutive weeks of gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for a second straight week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

At a conference on April 5, US Federal Reserve Governor Brainard said she hoped targeted rate hikes and quick cuts to the Fed’s balance sheet would bring US monetary policy to a “more neutral position” later this year, with further tightening of monetary policy if needed.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at investment management firm Invesco (USA), commented, Ms. Brainard’s comments show that “the Fed tends to be more aggressive in monetary policy at times. That certainly has a negative effect on the stock market because of concerns that this increases the likelihood of a recession.”

Besides, according to the minutes of the Fed’s March meeting, some officials of this bank supported raising interest rates by 50 basis points in the near future to combat inflation. Officials also discussed reducing the Fed’s bond holdings by $95 million per month at its May 3-4 meeting.

The information from the meeting minutes added to the concern that the Fed’s efforts to control inflation might negatively affect economic growth. Deutsche Bank (Germany) recently warned that the Fed’s “war” against inflation will spark a mild recession in the US by the end of next year.

Besides, analysts believe that with the March consumer price index data to be released next week, discussions about the Fed’s policy will continue to dominate the market sentiment.

In Asia, most Asian stock markets rallied on April 8, after a week of trading dominated by the Fed’s stance on stronger interest rate hikes.

Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, Mumbai, Manila, Jakarta and Bangkok markets all rallied. The Singapore and Wellington markets both fell.

The Shanghai Composite Index of the Shanghai market (China) closed up 0.47% to 3,251.85 points. The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong (China) market increased 0.29% to 21,872.01 points. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index (Japan) rose 0.36% to 26,985.8 points. The Kospi index of the Seoul market (South Korea) increased 0.17% to 2,700.39 points.

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