Why a small Pacific nation’s deal with China is gaining global attention

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand – A chain of small islands in the South Pacific is contested by Western governments after the country agreed to a security treaty with China. China which the United States and its allies fear could enhance Beijing’s military power in this strategically important region.

Agreement between China and Solomon Islandsa country of 700,000 people has Last year’s deadly riotposes “serious risks to a free and open Indo-Pacific”, officials from the US, Australia, Japan and New Zealand said in a statement on Wednesday.

The alarm in Washington and other capitals is so high that on Friday the highest-ranking US delegation in years visited the Solomon Islands. Kurt Campbell, the White House’s top official for Asia, and Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific affairs, met Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare in Honiara.

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Campbell had been tipped to warn Sogavare against the deal, the details of which have yet to be released publicly, but it was days before his visit when Beijing and Honiara announced that they signed it. According to a draft leaked online in March, the agreement allows China to send police and armed forces to the Solomon Islands to “assist in maintaining social order” and stop Chinese warships from stopping. feet there.

Anne-Marie Brady, a China expert at the University of Canterbury in New Zealand, said the deal was a “game changer”.

“The US is the main target of this move, as it is against the US containment strategy in the Indo-Pacific,” she said. “But it also directly threatens the security and autonomy of Pacific island nations, as well as Australia and New Zealand.”

Among their concerns is that the deal could allow China to establish a military base – its first in the Pacific – less than 1,300 miles from Australia, where relations with Beijing are at a low point. lowest in many years. The Solomon Islands are also on major shipping lanes between the United States and Asia.

Leaders from the small Pacific island nations, home to some of the fiercest battles of World War II, have expressed concern that they could once again be drawn into a conflict. between the great powers. In one open letter last month, Federated States of Micronesia President David W. Panuelo pleaded with Sogavare to consider the “far-reaching and grave security implications” of the China deal.

At their meeting on Friday, Sogavare assured the American delegation that the deal would leave China without a military base, without a permanent presence and without the ability to project power, according to one White House statement. China’s foreign ministry also said the agreement was aimed at maintaining stability in the Solomon Islands and was “not aimed at any third parties”.

“The normal law enforcement and security cooperation between China and the Solomon Islands, two sovereign and independent countries, is in line with international law and common international practice,” the spokesman said. of the Ministry said at a press conference last month.

Beijing accuses Washington of fostering a “cold war mentality” in the Indo-Pacific through initiatives such as Aukus, a security partnership with Australia and Britain that the Biden administration announced last year. Even before the deal with China was leaked online, the US said it planned to reopen its embassy in the Solomon Islands for the first time since 1993.

The Solomon Islands have grown closer to China under Sogavare, giving Beijing a big win in 2019 when it severed longstanding diplomatic ties with China. Taiwan. Anger over China’s role in the country’s affairs, and claims of corruption involving Beijing, contributed to November’s violent unrest targeting the prime minister’s Chinatown. dollars and killed four people. Australia has sent peacekeepers under a separate security arrangement with the country.

According to Sogavare, the security pact with Beijing is partly necessary so that the Chinese police can protect Chinese-funded infrastructure. However, opposition leader Matthew Wale said he was concerned Sogavare, who tried to postpone the 2023 general election, could use Chinese forces to back his government.

The Solomon Islands Department of Foreign Affairs did not respond to an email requesting comment.

Cleo Paskal, a US-based Indo-Pacific analyst, said of the deal: “The stakes are high.

“Links with China are focused on one individual, Sogavare, and are increasingly unpopular throughout the Solomons. The country is a free and fair election not only from the cancellation of the security agreement, but also from the flipping back to Taiwan,” she said.

“This raises concerns that a ‘security incident’ will occur or be created as an excuse to cancel the election and invite the People’s Republic of China to join the security forces of the People’s Republic of China,” she added, using uses an abbreviation for the official name of China, the People’s Republic of China.

Tarcisius Kabutaulaka, a political scientist at the University of Hawaii from the Solomon Islands, said Sogavare’s government would not allow Beijing to build a military facility and simply seek to exploit rivals. Global.

“The West is really, really worried” about China’s growing influence in the region, and it’s falling into the hands of the Solomons government, he said. They are trying to create a situation where they can take advantage of the West as well as the People’s Republic of China to see if the country can get as much profit as possible.”

Although there is likely to be some military presence in the Solomon Islands, China does not need its own base there, Kabutaulaka said.

“If their ships and navy could reach the Solomons, they wouldn’t need a long-term physical presence,” he said. “And any military base would be controversial and could become politically responsible” for governments in both Honiara and Beijing.

Iati Iati, a Pacific security expert at the Center for Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, told NBC News he did not see “the same level of alarm” among the Pacific island nations. as in Australia and New Zealand.

The two countries see the Pacific as their backyard, which will not affect their neighbors if they “continue to act in a high-handed and condescending manner when problems like this arise”, Iati said.

The Pacific has been militarized, he said, citing a new US military base being built in Micronesia and an upgrade to a naval base in Papua New Guinea funded by the US and Australia.

“They talk about respecting the sovereignty of the Pacific island nations, but then claim that they know what is best for their security needs,” Iati said. “The responses from the Australian and New Zealand governments demonstrate the neo-colonial sentiment that the Pacific island nations seem to have grown tired of.”

Reaction to the China-Solomon Islands security agreement has been particularly acute in Australia, where an election campaign is underway. One person commented called it “Australia’s Cuban missile crisis” and said Australian forces should invade the Solomon Islands if necessary to thwart the deal. An Australian government minister flew to the Solomon Islands this month to try to convince Sogavare not to go ahead with it.

Kabutaulaka said the way Australia and other countries think about the Pacific Ocean is not keeping up with reality.

“China is a regional power to stay,” he said. “The challenge for the Pacific island nations is to manage both the relationship with China and the Western countries in a way that benefits them and to ensure that they are not trampled on.”

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