Why is the Black Sea important to Russia in the war in Ukraine?

Rustam Minnekaev, a senior commander in the Russian military, said on April 22 that Moscow planned to attack southern Ukraine, connecting the parts that are under the control of the forces. Russia in the Donbass region, in the eastern part of the country neighboring the breakaway sub-region of Transnistria in Moldova. This would cut Ukraine off completely from the Black Sea, through which more than 70% of its exports pass.

However, why is the naval offensive aspect of this military campaign stalled and Russia seems to have no way to strengthen its forces in the Black Sea?

According to the Economist magazine, Russia has 20 warships, including submarines, in the Black Sea. However, the ability to conduct a naval raid or send Russian troops to Ukraine through this sea has been limited by the Ukrainian missiles. In late March, an attack by Kiev forces on the Russian-controlled port of Berdyansk in southeastern Ukraine destroyed the amphibious assault ship Saratov and damaged two other warships.

On April 14, officials in Kiev and the United States announced that Ukrainian forces fired two Neptune missiles at the guided-missile cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Navy. A day later, the flagship sank while being towed to a Crimean port for repairs.

Russia owns two other ships of the same Slava class as the Moskva, which are currently serving in the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet. However, they had no way of bringing them to the Black Sea. That’s because of a treaty dating back to 1936, known as the Montreux Convention, which regulates maritime traffic through the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits. Both straits, which connect the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, are controlled by Turkey.

The Montreux Convention grants civilian ships unrestricted access to the two straits. Things become more complicated when warships are involved. The Black Sea countries, which include Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, have the least difficult access. Warships of other countries are limited in tonnage and length of stay in the Black Sea.

Only the countries bordering the Black Sea can send submarines through the two straits, but aircraft carriers are never allowed to navigate through these areas. Importantly, when one of the coastal states enters a war, under the convention, Turkey has the right to prevent its warships from using the two straits, except for those returning to their home bases. surname.

In late February, Turkey applied the Montreux regulations to prevent Russia from sending new warships into the Black Sea. At the time, the move was believed to be largely symbolic. Russia appears to have enough warships at sea to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.

However, Turkey’s move ultimately appeared to have had a decisive influence on the naval battle.

“We have received information that four or five Russian ships from the Pacific Fleet will arrive in the Black Sea. If it comes to fruition, this will be a significant force, almost enough to destroy Odessa or make it much easier to capture this port city,” said a diplomat. Ukraine disclosure.

If Turkey keeps its commitment to upholding the Montreux rules, Russian naval assets will have to stay away from the Dardanelles and the Bosporus. It remains unclear whether that will be enough to prevent Moscow forces from taking control of southern Ukraine. But even so, Russia is unlikely to diminish Ukraine’s rights under the treaty.

“Turkey will not recognize the annexation of that part of Ukraine,” said Alper Coskun, a former Turkish diplomat who now works for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Ankara will continue to grant Ukraine coastal state rights and will not give Russia any new rights.”

Tuan Anh

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