People may be limited in energy use, required to drive slower and… move less
European countries are heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas supplies. However, the EU and the UK have imposed sanctions on Russia including cutting energy imports because of the country’s military campaign in Ukraine.
In early March, the EU pledged to cut gas imports from Russia by two-thirds by the end of the year. Britain said it would phase out Russian oil imports gradually by the end of 2022.
But those moves also come with risks in a region already facing an energy crisis. Falling natural gas supplies sent wholesale prices soaring to record highs in Europe last year. Households in the UK have seen their energy costs rise by more than 50% since April 1.
Limit the use of natural gas
On March 30, Germany warned that it could soon face a shortage of natural gas, according to which the supply needs to be divided. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said the early warning did not mean the country needed to use its gas reserves, but rather urged consumers and businesses to reduce energy consumption.
Meanwhile, the Austrian government announced on Wednesday that it has taken the first step of a three-phase emergency plan to more closely monitor the country’s natural gas market. Officials point to Russia’s requirement to pay for its energy purchases in rubles as the reason they have activated the contingency plan. They also note that, if phase 3 is reached, Austria will implement energy control measures such as limiting energy use.
According to Chi Kong Chyong, director of Cambridge University’s Energy Policy Forum, Germany and Austria may not be the only countries to take urgent measures if the West continues to isolate Russia.
Last week, Putin said the Kremlin would ask “unfriendly” countries to pay in rubles for natural gas purchases. Yesterday, he said he had signed a decree that foreign buyers must pay in rubles for Russian gas from April 1.
“If they don’t agree on payment terms and the flow of gas from Russia is stopped, then other European countries must also take urgent measures. Although summer will help reduce the amount of gas,” Chyong said. consumes gas, but Europe still needs gas flowing into storage for use during the winter months.”
He added: “If the flow of Russian gas is stopped, all European governments, including the UK, will have to activate emergency plans including a pre-emptive campaign to get their people ready. save during the winter months.”
Set limits on diesel use
Meanwhile, Jim Watson, professor of energy policy and director of the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources, said it was “very likely” that the UK would impose restrictions on diesel use.
The UK is facing more and more difficulties when it comes to gradually cutting off Russian oil supplies than reducing its dependence on natural gas, Watson said. This is because the country is more dependent on oil imports.
Speaking to lawmakers during a meeting of the National Assembly’s Finance Committee, Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects, warned that sanctions on Russia’s energy exports could have an impact. serious to Europe.
Meanwhile, Russell Hardy, CEO of Swiss oil exchange Vitol, said last month: “Europe imports about half of its diesel from Russia and half from the Middle East. A shortage will happen. out and restricting the use of diesel is possible.”
Proposing to reduce the need to use
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Russia will export 4.7 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021. Nearly half of that will go to European countries. The Netherlands, Germany and Poland are the largest importers of Russian oil in the region. Meanwhile, 74% of Russia’s natural gas exports go to OECD countries in Europe.
Watson suggested that implementing policies to help reduce demand for oil would help the British government reduce its dependence on oil imports. He also argued that promoting people to use public transport and introducing other behavioral policies could be done.
Last year, panic buying in the UK caused many gas stations to run out of stock, after which the army had to intervene and deliver more fuel to these locations. However, Watson noted that the situation is different now and there is a high probability that energy prices will rise even higher in the UK.
“I think imposing restrictions will be a bit of a challenge, asking people to drive slower, use less cars, fly less and switch to public transport,” he said. .”
Rory Stewart, a former UK Secretary for International Development and senior member of the board of the Jackson Institute at Yale University, said reducing Russia’s energy dependence could be done by reducing demand.
He has proposed policies including limiting travel speeds in the UK to 50 mph, making all public transport free and calling on companies like Uber to develop technology that would allow people to travel. Free carpool.
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