World Bank: Vietnam’s economy in 2022 will grow by 5.3%
In a newly released report, the World Bank (World Bank) forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to reach 5.3% in 2022 and then stabilize around 6.5%. Notably, the World Bank’s new forecast for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2022 is 0.2 percentage points lower than the forecast made by this bank in mid-January this year.
The growth forecast of 5.3% is based on the scenario where travel restrictions are eased both at home and abroad. The service sector is expected to recover gradually as consumer confidence is restored and international tourism is expected to gradually recover from mid-2022.
Besides, export turnover of processed and manufactured goods is forecasted to increase at a slower rate due to growth in key export markets of Vietnam (such as the US, the European Union and China). Quoc) stalled.
World Bank forecasts Vietnam’s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2022
However, the above outlook World Bank still faces increasing negative risks. As growth slowed in key trading partners together with trade rate shocks from Russia-Ukraine tensions and related sanctions could affect the recovery process.
“These factors may be exacerbated if a new strain of COVID-19 arises,” the World Bank said.
Besides, the World Bank believes that the economic recovery depends on the speed of recovery of domestic private demand, which is still relatively slow, showing the cautious sentiment of consumers and investors. The current phase of strong infections could lead to temporary disruptions in labor supply and production.
According to the World Bank, because the economy has recovered strongly since the beginning of the year, if the government deploys a strong support package with fiscal policy, the impact on economic growth can be mitigated. Monetary policy still needs to loosen, but must continue to be cautious to control risks in the financial sector.
In the event of further shocks, this could lead to a bad scenario of GDP growth reaching only 4% in 2022, recovering to 6% and 6.5% in 2023 and 6.5%, respectively, the organization said. 2024.
A few days ago, HSBC forecast that Vietnam’s economy would grow by 6.2% this year (0.3 percentage points lower than the previous forecast). HSBC believes that Vietnam is facing a series of challenges in the context of high world fuel prices. That will cause fuel costs to increase, adversely affecting Vietnam’s trade balance. This situation will cause Vietnam’s external indicators to shrink, leading to the second current account deficit in a row.
Meanwhile, high oil prices increase people’s living costs, slow down the recovery of personal consumption, especially in the context that the labor market has begun to show signs of recovery.
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