The Ministry of Health is preparing two pandemic scenarios in the near future, including Covid-19 turning into an endemic disease and the emergence of a new strain that needs to be responded to.
Professor Phan Trong Lan, Director of Preventive Medicine Department, Ministry of Health, said: first script As the virus gradually reduces its virulence, along with the immunity created when contracting Covid-19 and vaccination, the number of severe cases and deaths will decrease. With this scenario, Vietnam will transition to a new normal, turning Covid-19 into an endemic disease; take measures to bring social activities back to normal, help each individual understand the risks and take initiative in preventive measures. The whole country has not deployed large-scale anti-Covid-19 measures, but mainly focused on prevention for high-risk groups such as the elderly and people with underlying diseases.
In fact, Covid-19 in the country is hypothermia. Reporting on the situation of the Covid-19 epidemic on April 10, the Ministry of Health said that the number of cases nationwide increased the highest in the first three weeks of March due to the Omicron strain, then decreased sharply from the end of March until now. Since then, the Ministry of Health has said that “the epidemic nationwide is basically under control”.
However, Professor Lan said that “understanding about the virus that causes Covid-19 is not comprehensive”. When people increase travel and exchange, new strains may appear or strains may interact to form new strains, which can reduce vaccine effectiveness, change the risk of severe disease, and spread strongly. than. This is second scenarioVietnam will redeploy emergency measures to prevent the epidemic and continue to update therapeutic drugs and vaccine production technology.
According to Professor Lan, anti-epidemic measures for each scenario are developed in parallel, in order to not be passive in epidemic prevention, and promptly respond to new situations.
Assessing the current epidemic situation, experts say that Scenario one is more likely to happen. Dr. Nguyen Viet Hung, Vice Chairman of the Hanoi Association for Infection Control, acknowledged that the Omicron strain currently prevails. Most of the infected people have no symptoms, can self-isolate and treat at home. Life is and will soon return to normal when the government opens all services of life. He shared the same opinion with Professor Lan, that Covid-19 may appear a new strain, and anti-epidemic measures need to be adjusted appropriately according to the criteria of ensuring epidemic prevention when necessary and without causing any adverse effects. to the economy, society and people.
Associate Professor Do Van Dung, Dean of the Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, said that the wave of epidemics in the country has decreased. However, he did not rule out the possibility that Vietnam would have one or two more epidemic waves, the number of infections may still increase, but the number of severe cases will not increase because the majority of people have contracted Covid-19.
People make medical declarations at Noi Bai airport, Hanoi. Image:Giang Huy
According to Mr. Dung, Some old anti-epidemic measures are no longer appropriate. For example, medical declaration is time-consuming and slows down social activities. Some bus routes require declaration before getting on the bus, causing slow traffic, many elderly people and young children are not fluent in using the declaration application. The requirements “don’t gather, keep distance” become unfeasible because many activities need to be crowded with people such as study, travel, and entertainment.
In addition to changing anti-epidemic measures, Associate Professor Dung said that the health sector needs to soon overcome shortcomings in facilities and expertise and people, especially from the grassroots medical level. This shortcoming has been very evident since the pandemic. Therefore, the health sector needs to strengthen disease prevention measures, such as ensuring adequate protective equipment for employees. Localities have a shortage of grassroots medical staff, it is necessary to promptly notify superiors to strengthen and mobilize in time because this is the key human resource to ensure treatment for F0 at home. Health stations and grassroots medical staff also need to be enhanced in the eyes of the people to create trust, thereby improving a good source of income, and improving skills.
In the fourth wave of the epidemic, Vietnam recorded more than 10.2 million infections, of which more than 8.7 million have been declared cured. Over the past 7 days, the whole country recorded an average of more than 31,000 infections per day. Scenarios and predictions of domestic experts are similar to three scenarios released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11. In which, the first and most likely scenario is that Covid-19 continues to develop, but is no longer as serious as before because the community has natural immunity or from a vaccine. Infections spike cyclically, there are still deaths when immunity declines. Countries may need routine vaccination of vulnerable groups.
The second scenario is that the world will record more less severe strains, without the need for booster shots or development of new vaccines. The third scenario is that a new strain of the virus will appear, more dangerous, weakening the effectiveness of the vaccine or the body’s immunity, causing serious cases, increasing the mortality rate.
Chile – Thuy An
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