The messy situation of the Ukraine conflict

Just a few weeks ago, the West was united in its determination to make Russia After admitting defeat in the conflict with Ukraine, recent signals from Western officials and media show that the anti-Russian coalition is increasingly showing disagreements both over the outcome of the conflict and on how to support Kiev to continue. follow.

The West is divided

The US Newsweek newspaper commented on the current situation in Donbass not as optimistic as Kiev would have liked, as Russia’s strategic adjustment brought favorable results. At great cost over time, the West will become increasingly divided in its vision of the end result and other aspects.

“Ukraine needs to take into account that the West may be overwhelmed by a wave of conflict fatigue. Germany, Italy and France are interested in ending the conflict as soon as possible,” the magazine commented.

Ukrainian President Zelensky will not be able to ignore this, even though he now opposes the idea of ​​a ceasefire. Kiev may have to accept the view that the former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger stated last week at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. Accordingly, Ukraine should accept to give up part of its territory to reach a peace agreement with Russia, ending the conflict.

Mr. Kissinger is not alone. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced a reversal of Berlin’s policy, promising substantial military support to Kiev but in practice every move has been more modest.

The German newspaper Die Welt wrote that from March 30 to May 26, Germany only transferred to Ukraine two batches of anti-tank mines. Berlin is also in no hurry to consider sending Leopard 1 tanks and Marder armored vehicles to Kiev.

Polish media expressed skepticism about the solidarity of NATO countries. In an interview with Wirtualna Polska, experts emphasized that Ukraine should not expect to regain lost territories, as well as NATO’s participation in conflict with Russia.

The Georgian authorities reacted cautiously. Iraqi Prime Minister Garibashvili affirmed, despite increasing pressure from The WestTbilisi will not impose sanctions on Russia and aggravate relations with the country, even if it adds difficulties to its relations with the West.

The road to negotiation is difficult

According to the Russian newspaper RG, the US strategy is to prolong the conflict as much as possible. On the one hand, Washington is in no hurry to provide Kiev with all possible military support, such as the delivery of modern aircraft and tanks. On the other hand, as soon as the balance of the conflict was not in Kiev’s favor, the US promptly aided.

In the context of the increased risk of Ukraine being encircled in the Donbass, the United States has decided to supply MLRSs, possibly M270 MLRS or M142 HIMARS with M31 missiles. A new aid package for Kiev could be announced by the end of this week.

While AmericaBritain, Poland and the Baltic states maintain the argument that Russia must fail, Germany, Italy and France are looking for a way to soon reach peace talks.

Professor of international politics at the Bundeswehr University Munich, Carlo Masala, said that at the moment, President Putin has no reason to negotiate with Ukraine. According to him, Kiev does not want to give up any territory and Russia does not want to leave, so negotiations will be “extremely difficult”.

Russia’s recent military successes in the Donbass can be attributed to two reasons: Ukraine’s lack of heavy weapons and the Russian military’s successful strategic change.

“They have stopped attacking on a large front. Right now, they are gathering their troops to move forward to capture every small part of the front.”

Ukraine received help from the West, but he Putin not fully exerted yet. He can impose martial law, declare a general mobilization. He’s not doing it for the right reasons but he still has options,” Masala said.