What does Turkey want when it opposes Sweden and Finland joining NATO?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reuters

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced he will does not accept admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO. Given that the two Nordic countries need to get the nod of all 30 NATO members, including Turkey, to join the alliance, Ankara’s objections matter.

On the surface, Mr. Erdogan’s demands are entirely in line with the government’s position in Ankara. He has criticized Sweden and Finland for refusing to extradite certain individuals with links to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK – a Kurdish group that is banned by Turkey as well as the US and the European Union (EU). considered terrorism.

Behind the scenes, however, officials and experts have pointed to signs that Ankara may want to target other targets.

Bargain with America?

The Turkish president’s objections, according to public statements, stem from the view that Finland and Sweden support “terrorists”. According to Ankara, both Nordic countries have provided accommodation and protection to members of the PKK, an armed group that opposes the Turkish government, accusing it of mistreating Kurdish citizens.

Fate of Kurds in Turkey, part of a large but stateless ethnic community in the region, including Iraq and Syria, has long been a source of tension between Ankara and the international community. According to the page The Conversation, the Kurds are not allowed to vote freely in Turkey’s eastern Anatolia region, where they have a majority. Meanwhile, organizations education and cultural use of the Kurdish language is practically prohibited.

Although the PKK has been labeled a “terrorist group” by both the US and EU, Finland and Sweden have not agreed to extradite some of its members to Turkey because of human rights concerns. Sweden is also home to many followers of Fethullah Gulen, who President Erdogan has blamed for the failed coup in Turkey in 2016.

But the fact that Turkey cited the reasons related to hostile forces to oppose Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO highlights the fact that these forces are present in many countries in the alliance. Mr. Gulen himself is living in the US state of Pennsylvania).

Kurds demonstrate against Erdogan in Toulouse, France, 2019 afp

Steven A. Cook, senior scholar at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), a research and consulting organization policy in the United States, argued that while Turkey’s anger was understandable, its argument was not justified.

“What confuses me is Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s argument that Turkey’s security is like a threat. It doesn’t make any sense,” Cook told the magazine. Foreign Policy. “There’s actually something else going on.”

According to the expert, although Turkey may appear to be venting its anger on the two Nordic countries, its audience may be in Washington. Ankara seems to be hoping that its vote on NATO expansion will be a bargaining chip with the US Presidential administration. Joe Biden.

Turkey is looking to return to the F-35 advanced aircraft program that they were excluded after Ankara buy S-400 missile defense system from Russia, according to Bloomberg. Turkey also wants the United States to agree to sell dozens of F-16 fighter jets and upgrades to its existing fleet. In addition, Turkey wants the US to lift sanctions because of Ankara’s possession of S-400 missiles.

Using the NATO expansion card to achieve any of these goals will be a challenge for Mr. But Ankara has shown it is willing to go far and even damage its economy, in recent geopolitical disputes, including the detention of an American pastor, the Russian missile deal and the campaigns military against the Kurds.

Internal politics?

A famously astute politician, Mr. Erdogan is seeing an opportunity to win more votes among voters in the country, ahead of elections in the summer of 2023 (with speculation that elections could be held). office earlier this fall).

“Erdogan is not doing well in the polls. He is likely to lose. So this (against Sweden, Finland over the Kurds issue) could also be what helps to convince him. more Turkish voters,” said Dr Paul Levin, founder of the Institute of Turkish Studies at Stockholm University. EuroNews.

Mr. Erdogan has also said he will not repeat the “mistake” made by the Turkish military government in 1980 when it allowed Greece to return to NATO’s joint military force. The two countries went to war in 1974, and Greece then withdrew from NATO’s military command, although not completely. Turkey argues that its agreement to allow Greece to fully re-join NATO has led Athens to “antagonize Ankara” ever since.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis addresses the US Congress on May 17 reuters

Greece and its ally Cyprus have become major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership, opposition to a United Nations vote on a plan to unify Cyprus, and repeated involvement in territorial disputes. with Turkey in the areas of the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean Sea.

Learn from that lesson, officials in Ankara told Bloomberg said it would be unwise to expect Turkey to change course and accept the admission of Sweden and Finland to NATO, unless the disputes are resolved first and the Nordic countries openly commit to side. Turkey against Kurdish groups.

Turkish officials also denied that the country’s opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO was related to domestic politics, or stemmed from the close relationship between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Meanwhile, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said he was “optimistic” that the issue of Turkey’s position could be “resolved through discussions” without meeting any specific requirements. which body of Ankara.